Recently, I noticed that the U.S. bond market has been moving significantly due to the escalating tensions in Iran. I think this is a very important topic regarding what it means for the cryptocurrency market.

Over the past few months, as the Iran conflict continues, U.S. Treasury yields have surged sharply. The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 4.37%, and swap spreads have reached around 50 basis points. This indicates that the cost of funding for the U.S. government is beginning to increase.

Market participants point out that if the swap spread exceeds 60 basis points or the 10-year yield surpasses 4.5%, the Trump administration may be forced to restrain its strategies. Furthermore, if yields reach 5%, it could trigger a mini financial crisis, during which the Federal Reserve might be compelled to intervene by providing liquidity.

A key level to watch is in the range of 4.5% to 4.6%. Last April, when yields exceeded this level, the president hinted at a temporary suspension of tariffs. This suggests that movements in the bond market are directly reflected in policy decisions.

This situation also directly impacts Bitcoin. Initially, there may be downward pressure due to rising yields, but if the Fed intervenes, liquidity will be supplied, making it easier for buybacks to occur afterward. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $74,000.

Meanwhile, XRP is also active. XRP integration has been implemented in Rakuten’s payment app for 44 million users, enabling usage through loyalty points. This marks an important milestone for real demand adoption in the Japanese market. The current price is around $1.36, but a breakout above $1.40–$1.42 is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal.

As a trader, it’s important to monitor not only price fluctuations but also the movements of U.S. Treasury yields and swap spreads. These indicators directly influence risk appetite and policy decisions. The market reacts sensitively to these structural changes. We should keep a close eye on how this develops.