#USBlocksStraitofHormuz

The US just floated the idea of blockading the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world's oil passes through that narrow corridor — if it gets choked, you are not talking about a supply disruption, you are talking about a market shock that would ripple through every asset class on earth.

Oil spikes first, obviously. Brent crude could gap up violently in the early sessions — think 2019 Abqaiq attack but with the volume knob turned way up. Energy equities follow. Inflation expectations reprice overnight.

Then comes the second-order hit. Risk assets sell off hard. Equities, crypto, anything denominated in optimism about the future — all of it takes the stairs down. The dollar typically catches a safe-haven bid in the first wave, which puts pressure on BTC priced in USD, at least short term.

The longer this stays in the headlines, the more interesting the crypto narrative gets though. When people start questioning dollar stability or sovereign overreach, the "hard money" argument for BTC tends to find a new audience. We saw flickers of this during the 2022 sanctions wave. This scenario is bigger.

For traders right now: energy proxies are likely already moving. If you are in leveraged positions anywhere, the vol spike alone can hurt you even if you called the direction right. Risk management is not optional in a headline-driven environment like this.

Worth watching closely — this is the kind of macro event that does not announce its turning point in advance.