Bitcoin is holding its ground even as it’s shaken by the US tariff dispute. In Thursday’s trading, it fell to nearly $65,900, and then came back to around $67,000. It seems the market is being moved by remarks from former President Trump, who said that tariffs cut the US trade deficit by 78%.

But honestly, it’s not so much the accuracy of that figure traders are watching—it’s the impact on the real economy. If tariffs strengthen, interest rates are more likely to remain high over the long term, and the dollar will strengthen too. That would put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. If the real economy tightens further, it may become difficult to keep the current rally going.

Looking at actual data, the US trade deficit in early January shrank to about $29.4 billion, the lowest level since 2009. Imports fell and exports rose, according to the explanation. However, economists point out that some of the change is also due to temporary gold flows, so it may be risky to judge based on monthly data alone. To determine the true direction of the real economy, it will take a bit more time.

For now, Bitcoin is being traded as if it were a real-economy indicator. It responds sharply to changes in liquidity and interest-rate outlooks. Whether the tariff issue ends up as mere political noise, or ends up having a real impact on the real economy—either way, that judgment is likely to shape the next market move. The current price is hovering around $74,000.