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Last week, Bitcoin showed quite a strong performance. It increased by about 8.5% on a weekly basis, and since the Middle East situation worsened, it has risen over 13%. Interestingly, during the same period, tech stocks, gold, and U.S. equities declined, but Bitcoin alone shot up.
Recently, the divergence phenomenon where Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks and gold weakens has become more apparent. BlackRock's IBIT rose by 3.5%, but tech software ETFs(IGV) and gold actually fell. This divergence signals that Bitcoin is no longer moving solely as a pure risk asset.
The capital flow is also positive, with approximately $1.3 billion entering the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF since March. It’s likely to be the first month since October to show net inflows. It’s trading around $74,000, and this level seems to serve as an entry point for major institutional demand.
However, it’s not yet a stage to be completely reassured. The fear and greed index remains in extreme fear territory, and the perpetual futures funding rate is also negative. This indicates that short positions are dominant, meaning traders are still cautious. Still, it’s noteworthy that Bitcoin is beginning to act as a leading indicator for macro events.