So there is something interesting from the analysis by the ZX Squared Capital investment team. They say that Bitcoin is currently in a deep bearish phase and could drop another 30% during this year 2026. This prediction is based on a four-year cycle pattern that repeatedly occurs in the crypto market.

Looking at the price chart, Bitcoin has indeed fallen quite far from its all-time high of over $126,000 last October. Currently, the price is around $74,000, so it has already declined significantly. But according to them, there is still potential for further decline.

What’s interesting is the pattern they identified regarding the four-year crypto cycle. Basically, there is a halving that happens every 4 years, the last one being in April 2024. Historically, Bitcoin’s price usually peaks about 16-18 months after the halving, followed by a bearish market that lasts about a year. Bitcoin did reach its peak in October, which fits this pattern.

According to CK Zheng, the reason this cycle keeps repeating is because of investor psychology. Individual investors tend to behave the same — buy during hype, sell during panic. This predictable behavior continues to reinforce the same boom-bust pattern every four years. Therefore, Bitcoin is still viewed more as a speculative asset rather than a safe haven like gold.

Another point to note is that institutional adoption of Bitcoin is still relatively slow. The total size of crypto ETFs and companies holding Bitcoin as an asset is only about 10% of the total crypto market. There is a risk that some companies holding Bitcoin might be forced to sell to meet liquidity needs, which could create additional downward pressure on prices.

In conclusion, this bearish phase might continue longer before a new cycle begins. This isn’t an optimistic prediction for the short term, but if you understand this four-year cycle, at least you know what might happen in the crypto market in the upcoming period.