I recently saw that the entire crypto community is feeling intense tension regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Many people on X are worried that Tehran might close this strategic chokepoint, and honestly, the fear is justified but we might also be overreacting.

Last Saturday, Israel and the US launched airstrikes against Iran, and Iran immediately retaliated with ballistic missiles. This triggered a market panic because it’s the only place open for investors to trade their fears. Bitcoin dropped from around $65,600 down to $63,000, then rose again to $65,000. Oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid also rose more than 5%.

The logic of those worried is straightforward — if Hormuz is blocked, 20% of global oil shipments are halted, oil prices jump to $120-$150, and boom, massive inflation worldwide. Geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova even pointed out that Iran is a founding OPEC member and is now directly involved. Some oil companies have also suspended shipments through the strait.

BUT — and this is the important part — many experts counter that a full closure isn’t realistic. Daniel Lacalle, economist and fund manager, pointed out that Iran itself produces only 3.3 million barrels daily, and only half of that is exported, mostly to China. Essentially, Iran would be shooting itself in the foot if they really shut down the strait. Plus, OPEC members can quickly increase production to compensate.

Another thing — technically, most of the shipping lanes through Hormuz are in Omani waters, not Iranian. The waters on Iran’s side are shallower, so large tankers mainly pass through Oman’s side. Dr. Anas Alhajji, energy expert, pointed out that the strait has never been fully blocked even during all wars — it’s too wide, too well-protected. So technically, even if Iran tries, the actual impact would be limited.

So realistically, the oil price spike is likely limited and temporary. HOWEVER, if it escalates into all-out war, that’s the scary scenario. Massive risk-off in the entire market, Bitcoin could drop below the heavily watched $60,000 support level.

For now, Bitcoin is holding above $74,300 as global risk appetite returns — Asian markets and the S&P 500 have recovered from the Middle East war scare in late February. But chart patterns still suggest potential for deeper bear market moves if the situation worsens.

TL;DR — Iran closing Hormuz is unlikely and impractical, oil spikes are probably temporary, but all-out war remains a tail risk that could tank crypto markets. Worth monitoring but no need to panic based on worst-case scenarios alone.