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Just been watching the whale wallets and something's off. Those big holders loaded up hard when BTC was getting crushed in late Feb around $62-69k range, then immediately started dumping as soon as we hit $74k. Classic buy the dip, sell the bounce move.
Meanwhile retail's doing the opposite - they're jumping in now that price slipped back below $70k. That's usually a warning sign that the correction isn't actually done yet. With almost half of bitcoin supply sitting underwater and the Fear and Greed Index deep in extreme fear territory (we're talking single digits), you've got this weird standoff. Every time we pump, people who've been bleeding red for weeks are just looking to break even and exit. So the selling pressure is real.
The way I see it, either this selling pressure exhausts itself and we actually break through $74k with real momentum, or retail capital dries up and we test that $60k support for real. Based on what the whales are doing, they seem to be betting on the latter. The Fear and Greed sentiment is definitely leaning bearish right now. Could be a rough few weeks ahead.