Over the past few weeks, I've been watching Bitcoin's price movements and I think a situation very similar to the bottom phase of 2022 is forming. According to analysis by Vetle Lund, head of research at K33, current Bitcoin behavior closely resembles the late bearish market from September to November 2022.

Back then, Bitcoin was struggling between $15,000 and $20,000, followed by a prolonged correction. Now, it's trading around $65,000 to $70k, or more precisely, near $74,350, and I believe it's entering a similar "quiet consolidation phase."

What's interesting is that market sentiment indicators are becoming quite extreme. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to a record low of 5 last week, and this week most readings are below 10. This indicates that speculators have completely exited the market. In fact, spot trading volume has decreased by 59% compared to the previous week, and open interest in perpetual contracts on a major exchange is at its lowest in four months. In other words, the market is being thoroughly liquidated.

That's why Lund points out that "Bitcoin's price is likely to enter a long-term consolidation range between $60k and $75,000." It’s a test of patience, but not a bad situation for long-term investors.

On-chain analyst James Check also made an interesting point. Bitcoin mostly "does nothing" most of the time, but occasionally it suddenly surges by 100%. Riding those rapid waves can significantly influence overall returns. Therefore, rather than trying to perfectly time the peaks and bottoms, holding your position steadily is more important.

In fact, Bitcoin temporarily broke through $76,000 last month, but then retreated to around $74,000 and has been struggling for nearly two months. The funding rate on a major exchange has remained negative for 46 days, indicating continued bearish positioning.

Historically, such long-term risk-off phases often precede sharp price increases. While short-term frustration may be understandable, the market has consistently rewarded investors who are patient and hold their positions rather than trying to perfectly time the market.