Bitcoin continues to test the vicinity of $75,000. Looking at last week's price movements, major cryptocurrencies all recorded gains of over 5%, creating a broad market trend since the Iran situation. However, the breakdown is surprisingly simple.

Bitcoin, which temporarily rose to $75,912 early Tuesday morning, quickly retreated back to the $74,000 range. Market sentiment suggests that this short-term surge was driven by derivative position adjustments, not new spot demand. The settlement of large put positions around $60k triggered spot buying by makers. Ultimately, with a move below the $74,400 support level, traders are less inclined to chase higher prices without solid justification.

What’s more noteworthy than intraday price movements is the weekly chart. Ethereum rose 3.85% to $2,320, XRP recovered to $1.36, Dogecoin to $0.09, and BNB near $615. This broad upward trend indicates that institutional investors are seriously moving funds. Last week, there was a net inflow of about $760 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the third consecutive week of inflows. This is a sharp reversal from the over $3 billion outflows earlier this year.

Another striking point is the change in correlation with gold. From the start of the year until mid-March, gold rose 16%, while Bitcoin fell 19%. Recently, however, the gap has rapidly narrowed, with Bitcoin outperforming gold by 13.2% since early March. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" had been fading in February, but it has now made a comeback.

The focus now is on this week’s Fed meeting. While a rate hold is almost certain, the key points are the dot plot and Chair Powell’s comments. With crude oil prices exceeding $100, stagflation risks remain, yet the labor market is weakening. How the authorities navigate these conflicting signals will likely determine the future direction of risk assets.

In the short term, price movements are volatile, but the weekly chart shows genuine capital inflow signals. The move to test $75,000 is likely to continue.