I noticed a rather interesting pattern in the US labor market that could seriously turn the situation around for Bitcoin. In January, the number of announced job cuts more than tripled—reaching 108 thousand. This is the highest since 2009, when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Honestly, it sounds like an Asian-scale problem in terms of magnitude.

The most interesting part is the contrast. Official employment data look normal, but private indicators are screaming about problems. In just January, Amazon and UPS alone announced more than 50 thousand layoffs. Employers clearly had been preparing for this at the end of last year, which points to pessimism about 2026.

At the same time, another interesting thing can be seen—real inflation based on blockchain data has fallen below 1%, even though the official CPI remains above the target level of the ФРС. It turns out that unofficial sources show a completely different picture than official statistics.

The Federal Reserve is currently holding rates in the 3.5–3.75% range, but pressure is growing. Analysts disagree—JPMorgan thinks rates will remain unchanged throughout the year, while others are expecting at least two cuts of 25 basis points. There are even forecasts of a 100 basis point reduction before the midterm elections.

For Bitcoin, this is a potentially good scenario. It is currently trading around $74.3 thousand, down almost 50% from its high above 126 thousand. If the ФРС really starts easing policy, risky assets will get support. Bitcoin has already broken the 76 thousand level a couple of times, but it has pulled back. On one of the major exchanges, funding rates for perpetual contracts have remained negative for 46 days—this indicates bearish sentiment despite rising open interest.

Overall, the picture is shaping up to be quite interesting. The labor market is cooling rapidly, private data are diverging from official statistics, and this could force the ФРС to reconsider its direction. If that happens, it could become a catalyst for a Bitcoin recovery. For now, it’s stuck in consolidation, but the prerequisites for an upward move are gradually building up.