Bernstein predicts: Prediction markets will reach a $1 trillion size by 2030, with regulatory battles not altering the long-term growth trend

According to the latest forecast from Wall Street broker Bernstein, the prediction market is expected to reach a $1 trillion market size by 2030.

The institution's report predicts that trading volume in prediction markets will reach $240 billion by 2026, a 370% increase from 2025, and this market trend is expected to maintain an approximate 80% compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030.

From the market landscape perspective, prediction markets exhibit a duopoly, with Kalshi holding over 90% of the share. Its weekly trading volume has surged from about $10k a year ago to over $3 billion, and it has been rated by U.S. banks as one of the fastest-growing non-AI companies, with Polymarket following closely behind.

Data shows that from the beginning of this year to date, the combined trading volume of the two major prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, has reached $60 billion, surpassing the total trading volume of $51 billion in all of 2025;

Meanwhile, platforms like Robinhood, DraftKings, and Underdog have also entered the space. Robinhood’s prediction market, launched a year ago, has achieved an annualized revenue of $350 million, with trading volume accounting for about 30% of Kalshi’s total, becoming the fastest-growing business line for the platform.

The explosive growth of prediction markets began in 2024, driven by the U.S. presidential election, which significantly boosted trading volume. Subsequently, in 2025, the expansion into sports events, cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic and political contracts further propelled market growth.

Bernstein analysts point out that as federal-level regulation becomes clearer, it will further enhance the potential of prediction markets, and the integration of blockchain tokenization and cryptocurrencies also provides more liquidity for the market.

Although the CFTC has always advocated for exclusive regulation of prediction markets, currently 14 U.S. states have initiated legal proceedings against prediction markets citing sports betting regulation authority, and four related bills are pending in Congress, indicating a significant rise in concerns over insider trading.

Overall, despite short-term regulatory uncertainties, Bernstein remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, believing that gradually clarifying regulations will improve market legitimacy and mainstream acceptance. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to continue benefiting from industry explosive growth.

#预测市场 #Bernstein