4.15 Laosi Gold Morning Review

U.S. March PPI data came in below expectations across the board; inflationary pressure at the production end has clearly eased. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have been further boosted, and the continued decline in real interest rates provides strong support for gold prices. While there are signs of easing in the Middle East situation, the U.S.-Iran negotiations still involve significant variables. As the Lebanon conflict has not yet been resolved, geopolitical risk aversion continues to provide a solid bottom support for gold prices.

The U.S. dollar index keeps weakening, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been fluctuating and falling back, basically removing the suppressive pressure on gold prices moving higher. Today, the U.S. March CPI data will be released, and the market has already entered a cautious-but-tilted-strong game plan, with bullish sentiment holding an advantage.

Spot gold is currently trading around 4,830. On the daily timeframe, moving averages are arranged in a bullish order. Price has held above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the medium-term uptrend is clear. On the 4-hour timeframe, it is running along an upward channel; the Bollinger Bands are opening upward. Pullbacks toward support have been effective, and the short-term remains in a strong and oscillating structure, with plenty of bullish momentum.

Core trading range: 4,800—4,860
Support: First support at 4,800; strong support at 4,770–4,780
Resistance: Initial resistance at 4,850–4,860; after a breakout, the level of 4,900 can be watched

Trading outlook: Prefer trend-following long positions
If the pullback stabilizes in the 4,800–4,810 range, long positions can be initiated
Targets are 4,850–4,860; if it breaks through, continue holding for a move toward 4,900