My current conclusion about position sizing is quite simple: no matter how lively the expectations of interest rate cuts are, I won't go all-in at once. At most, I’ll move the risk level up one notch, leaving enough room to retreat. To put it plainly, when it comes to how interest rates transmit to the crypto world, it first affects sentiment (whether people dare to gamble), then capital (whether they are willing to hold long-term), and only then does the narrative come into play.

Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about how the US dollar index and risk assets are moving together—rising and falling in unison... I actually see it as a reminder: when correlation gets messy, relying solely on macro explanations can easily lead to mistakes. So my three-step folding rule is: first, test the waters with a small position; once liquidity truly returns, gradually add; as long as volatility starts to “unreasonably increase,” I’ll withdraw some first and put the bullets back in my pocket. After all, staying alive is the most important.