#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 April 14 Gold and Silver Analysis: The U.S. and Iran Still Have Room for Negotiation, Gold Rebounds After Bottoming Out

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Market Review
According to reports from American media such as CBS and CNN, an American official stated that the U.S. and Iran are still in negotiations, and both sides are working to find a diplomatic solution to this conflict. "There is ongoing contact between the U.S. and Iran, and progress is being made toward reaching an agreement," the official said. According to Russia’s TASS on the 13th, citing The Atlantic Monthly, the next round of "direct talks" between the U.S. and Iran may be held in Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 16th.
According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 99%. The probability of a total 25 basis point cut by June is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.5%, and the probability of a total 25 basis point increase is 1%.
The world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—held 5.227 tons less than the previous day, with current holdings at 1,047.192 tons.
The US dollar index fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, breaking below the 99 level, closing down 0.25% at 98.42; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2930%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to Fed policy rates, slightly declined to 3.7830%.
On the chart, gold gapped lower at the open in the previous trading day, opening at $4,680 and dropping to a low of $4,638. After stabilizing, it rebounded from above $4,650, with an Asian session surge to $4,740 before pulling back. In the afternoon, it retraced to $4,708, then touched above $4,730, before pulling back again during the European session. Before the U.S. session, it dipped to $4,703, then surged to $4,735 before retreating to around $4,700. It rose again in the afternoon, closing at $4,741, forming a bullish daily candle.
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Today’s Viewpoint
The market decline was caused by the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations. From the news this morning, both sides still have room for maneuver, so a short-term rebound by the bulls is very normal. Gold remains the same, continuing to fluctuate, and this week’s focus will be on collective statements from Fed officials. Hawkish and dovish remarks will continue to influence short-term gold trends.
Technically, the daily chart shows continued oscillation between bullish and bearish signals, with a possibility of a bearish close on Tuesday. The rally from $4,099 to $4,850 has already ended, and a retracement to confirm support is expected. Even if new highs are reached again, a pullback will still occur—it's just a matter of timing. If there’s no decline this week, it will likely be a week of consolidation.
The weakening of the dollar was the main support for gold’s rebound after bottoming on Monday. On Tuesday, the gap has been filled, and the immediate resistance is at $4,760–$4,773, which could be a short-term shorting zone. Support levels are at $4,700 and $4,680. The overall approach remains oscillatory—buy high, sell low—patience is key!
Regarding silver: In the previous trading day, silver showed strength. Resistance remains at $76–$78, with support at $73.50 and $72.50. Continue to monitor the range.
These are purely personal opinions and for reference only!