These past two days, I’ve seen a bunch of people staring at whale addresses, getting ready to copy trades. Let me caution one thing: first, figure out whether they’re building a position or hedging. In plain terms, seeing “bought” on-chain doesn’t necessarily mean bullish— it could just be spot buying while simultaneously opening short positions to lock in risk, or cross-platform arbitrage. Once you follow along, you turn into a one-sided gambler.

Actually, the easiest way to fall into a trap is during the phase of new L1/L2 projects that incentivize to pull in TVL. Everyone complains about “mining and selling,” and it’s even less likely that whales would be foolish enough to go all-in with a full bankroll. Many are mining while hedging, leaving you alone to eat the volatility in spot. Anyway, when I see large inflows now, I don’t get excited. First, I look to see whether there are staged entries, whether there are hedging legs, and whether the funds flow back to exchanges. If you’re not sure, keep a small position—consider it buying a ticket. Surviving matters more than moving fast and chasing the lead.