I'm not very good at discussing the "grand narrative" of chain games, but I do see quite a few examples of pools collapsing... To put it simply, it's because the output is too smooth, and inflation is too frequent. People who come in aren't here to play; they're here to take away rewards. As long as the inflow of new funds/new players can't keep up with the token issuance rate, the buy orders in the pool will be worn down by daily selling pressure, eventually turning into a "who runs faster wins" situation.

I personally use a very crude model: output = selling pressure, consumption = buying pressure. If consumption can only be sustained by "missions + points + airdrop expectations," then it's like the current airdrop season's point system—scammers work as hard as they go to work, and even strict anti-witch measures can't stop everyone from calculating ROI... Once the expectations are gone, people will disperse. For chain games to be truly stable, the consumption must be something players genuinely want to spend on (time/items/experience), not just a bigger number to fool you into locking up your tokens. Anyway, whenever I see high output, I ask: who will ultimately take over this coin? If it can't be absorbed, don't try to force it.