Honestly, I've recently seen quite a few people saying things like "Stablecoin supply increases = the bull is coming" or "ETF inflows = immediate rally," and I'm a bit cautious. Correlation can be very misleading: more stablecoins might just be exchanges stocking up, or OTC moving assets around, or some institutions converting cash into on-chain notes for risk control, which doesn't necessarily mean genuine buying pressure is about to enter the market.

The same goes for ETFs; capital inflows don't always mean chasing high prices immediately. Sometimes it's just replacing the original spot channels; the structure changes but the net increase might not be significant. I'm now more interested in "where the money comes from, where it goes, and how long it stays," such as net inflows/outflows on centralized exchanges combined with on-chain activity, lending rates, and other more verifiable indicators.

Recently, some regions have been tightening or loosening tax policies and compliance measures, which can cause fluctuations in deposit and withdrawal expectations, affecting sentiment and rhythm. This kind of "psychological liquidity" is more likely to amplify short-term volatility. I’m also unsure about the next steps, so I prefer to verify data gradually according to the template and not rush to draw causal conclusions.