How to view the 2026 real estate market “small spring” rally | Chongyang Q&A

Source: Chongyang Investment

Q: May I ask, how does Chongyang Investment view the “little spring” market trend in the real estate sector in 2026?

A: Since the Spring Festival, the real estate market’s “little spring” trend has shown distinct features of “Beijing and Shanghai warming first, second-hand homes outperforming new homes, rigid demand taking the lead, volume rising and prices staying stable.”

City differentiation: Beijing and Shanghai leading, recovery tiers gradually taking shape

From a regional performance perspective, this round of recovery is showing clear differentiation in city tiers, and a trend of leading cities stabilizing first is taking shape. First-tier cities, especially Beijing and Shanghai, have performed remarkably. Since after the Spring Festival, the year-on-year growth rates in second-hand home transaction volumes in the two places have been 28.6% and 36.5% respectively, which are significantly higher than the national growth rate of 21.9%. The de-stocking periods for second-hand homes in Beijing and Shanghai have already fallen to 8.6 months and 4.1 months respectively, and the inventory structure has continued to improve. The stabilization of core cities is often an early signal of the market bottom forming. Although, at the national level, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of newly built commodity housing in January–February 2026 is still 13.5%, and among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, most cities still have second-hand home prices in a downward channel, the historical rule of “core cities bottoming out first and recovery energy spreading outward” has been confirmed again in this cycle, with the regional characteristics of the market bottom becoming increasingly evident.

Business-type differentiation: the second-hand market is active, and new homes have room to build momentum

In terms of business types, the activity level of the second-hand housing market is clearly better than that of new homes, and positive signals have appeared on both the volume and price fronts. Data shows that in Beijing, the number of second-hand homes with online contract filings is 2.07 times that of new homes; in Shanghai, it is 1.46 times. In week 11, transactions of second-hand homes in the key 20 cities increased by 21.97% month-on-month and 13.68% year-on-year, continuing the good momentum since the holiday. Transactions of new homes with online contract filings in the key 14 cities increased by 32.32% month-on-month in the same period; although year-on-year is still slightly negative, the month-on-month momentum has clearly rebounded. Of note, the year-on-year decline in approved-for-sale commodity residential properties in 35 cities exceeds 40%. Developers’ active contraction on the supply side helps improve the supply-demand relationship in the new home market. As the heat in the second-hand market continues to accumulate, conditions for market popularity to transmit to new homes are gradually becoming available.

Demand structure: rigid demand leads, and the entry timing is active

In terms of demand structure, this round of market activity is mainly driven by rigid-demand groups, and their willingness to enter the market has increased significantly. In February 2026, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the share of second-hand home listings with a total price below 3 million accounted for 52%, 59%, and 52% respectively; in Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, the shares below 2 million reached 67%, 89%, and 53% respectively. Taking Shanghai as an example, in January–February, nearly 17,000 second-hand homes with total price below 3 million were transacted, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, and the share rose to 56.1%, up 6 percentage points from the same period last year. The concentrated entry of rigid demand is a direct reflection of the effectiveness of policy implementation, and also the most solid foundation for the market to warm up. Although the entry pace of improved demand is relatively slower, as rigid demand is first absorbed and price expectations stabilize, the launch of the improved-demand chain is only a matter of time.

Volume-price relationship and changes on the supply side

On the price front, there is a positive pattern of “volume and price trending toward stability, and clear bottom characteristics.” In February, second-hand home prices in Beijing and Shanghai increased slightly month-on-month by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The nationwide month-on-month decline narrowed to 0.43%, and the downtrend has clearly been easing. Looking at the listing price trend over the four weeks after the holiday, Shanghai is now basically flat, and bottom signals for prices in core first-tier cities are becoming increasingly clear.

Positive changes worth noting have also emerged on the supply side. Over the three weeks after the holiday, the growth in the number of second-hand home listings was significantly slower than in the same period of previous years. Beijing and Shanghai increased by only 1.4% and 3.5% respectively, and Guangzhou even saw negative growth of -0.5%. At the same time, the bargaining space in first-tier cities has continued to shrink. In January, the bargaining rates in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.4, 1.0, and 0.4 percentage points month-on-month respectively. When taken together—slower listing growth, shorter de-stocking periods, and narrowing bargaining space—these indicate that sellers’ expectations are moving toward stability, and the market is shifting from panic selling to rational bargaining. A healthy interaction between supply and demand is taking shape.

Looking ahead, the process of the real estate market stopping the decline and turning toward stabilization may not happen overnight, and the market may continue to show the characteristics of structural differentiation. However, compared with the situation in the past few years, the market changes we have seen since this year have given us more confidence. From a broader perspective, as capital markets recover and social confidence improves, the most painful phase of domestic economic adjustments has already passed, and more signs of endogenous stabilization are emerging.

▲ Scroll up to read【Disclaimer】

This material is originally created and edited and published by Shanghai Chongyang Investment Management Co., Ltd. (referred to as “Chongyang Investment”). It is for the purposes of providing information and investor education only. Based on the information and sources used in this material (for example: Wind, Bloomberg) as well as internal research results, the relevant information is considered reliable; however, Chongyang Investment makes no statement or guarantee, whether express or implied, regarding the completeness or accuracy of this material. The relevant information is for reference only and does not constitute advertising, a solicitation for sales, or a recommendation to trade any securities, funds, or investment products. Any entities, brands, commodities, etc. cited in this material are only used as objects for research and analysis and do not represent Chongyang Investment’s actual operations. Due to various factors such as investment restrictions on fund products, portfolio adjustments, and transaction costs, Chongyang Investment’s actual operations may differ from the conclusions drawn in this material.

This material does not take into account any specific investment needs, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any reader. Before investing, readers should carefully read the legal documents and risk disclosure documents of the product, fully understand the product’s risk-return characteristics and product features, and fully consider their own risk tolerance, make rational judgments, and make cautious investment decisions.

The copyright of this material belongs to Chongyang Investment. Without authorization from Chongyang Investment, no institution or individual may, in any form, forward, repost, copy, reproduce, publish, edit, imitate, or quote the content of this material.

Massive information and precise insights—available on the Sina Finance APP

Editor: Shi Xiuzhen SF183