#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Tonight (Eastern Time April 14). After the U.S. stock market opens, you can use the following tools and strategies to track in real time, based on the logic of “watch volume during trading hours and look at net inflows after hours.”

📊 Core Tracking Indicators and Tools

It is recommended that you directly focus on the following three data sources. They correspond to different update rhythms and different uses:

Real-time trading value (during trading hours): TradingView / Exchange official websites

What to look for: Search directly for IBIT, FBTC, GBTC, and observe Volume (trading volume).

Purpose: If the price is moving sideways but the trading volume increases significantly (e.g., higher than the average of the past few days), it indicates that institutions are doing large-scale turnover—this is a sign before a turning point.

Estimated net fund inflow (after hours 15–30 minutes): SoSoValue / Coinglass

What to look for: The homepage’s “Daily Total Net Inflow” and the comparison of “IBIT vs FBTC.”

Purpose: SoSoValue usually updates the final data within 15–30 minutes after the U.S. stock market close, making it the most direct basis for judging institutional sentiment for the day.

Authoritative product-by-product data (early next morning): Farside Investors

What to look for: A detailed list of net inflows/outflows for each ETF.

Purpose: The data is the most rigorous, but updates a bit slower (usually after 10:00 PM Eastern Time). It’s suitable for review and confirmation.

🎯 Three Iron Rules for Judging Market Direction

Based on your previous questions (Fidelity outflows, BlackRock inflows), tonight please focus on verifying the following signals:

Watch how the “big boss” looks

Bullish signals: BlackRock IBIT keeps net inflow (even if it’s only a few tens of millions), and Fidelity’s FBTC no longer shows large outflows (< $50 million). This indicates that the institutional foundation is solid.

Bearish signals: IBIT shows net outflow, or FBTC’s single-day outflow is again above $100 million. This means the main funds are withdrawing at high levels.

Watch for “divergence” risk

If the BTC price surges but the ETF’s overall net inflow is negative or flat, this is a typical “price rise with no volume” or an institutional “dumping” divergence. The April 13 market you were watching is a classic example (price rose but ETF outflows were $290 million). Be alert for a pullback the next day.

Watch Grayscale GBTC’s “bleeding stops” situation

If GBTC continues to see large outflows (e.g., > $200 million), it will create natural sell pressure. If tonight’s GBTC outflow narrows to within $100 million, it means sell pressure is reduced—positive for the market.

⚠️ Important Reminder

Single-day noise: A single day’s net outflow (especially < $100 million) may be normal profit-taking; only three consecutive days of net outflows is a strong signal that the trend is turning bearish.

China time difference: The U.S. stock market opens at 21:30 Beijing time and closes at 04:00 the next day. SoSoValue’s data is usually updated around 04:15–04:30—this is the time you most need to refresh before sleeping.

Tonight’s focus: Whether IBIT can maintain positive inflow, and whether FBTC’s outflow narrows. If both are met, it means institutional turnover is healthy and the rebound can continue.