These past two days, I keep seeing people staring at on-chain large transfers and changes in exchange hot and cold wallets, saying things like “smart money is about to move”… I’m also curious and click in to take a quick look, but to be blunt, it’s fine to watch the drama—if you treat it like a signal, it gets a bit exhausting.

Recently, I pulled up the AMM curve again and looked into it. The more I look, the more I feel that market making isn’t just about lying back and collecting fees: once the price runs off course, your position gets “pushed” by the curve to switch over to the side where it rises more slowly. When you eventually do the accounting, impermanent loss feels like a little bit of firewood being stolen by moisture—maybe it doesn’t hurt right away, but it becomes visible in the comparison. Whether trading fees can cover it depends on volatility and the range, and luck also plays a big part.

What I’ve learned isn’t a technique, but this: don’t take “seemingly stable returns” for granted—just gradually keep adding fuel and accept that things won’t be perfect.