Lately I've been paying attention to the trend in interest rates again. It feels less like a switch and more like a thermometer in a greenhouse: when the temperature rises, everyone's hands get itchy, and positions unconsciously shift toward risk; when the temperature drops, even the "long-term optimism" becomes very quiet. For me, the real signal isn't a specific level, but whether the market is willing to give some patience for a pullback — once patience runs out, positions have to be shut down.

The recent heated debate over pledge/share security is quite intense. Basically, it's about stacking yields on top of yields, which sounds great, but when macro conditions tighten and risk appetite cools down, the confidence in the "layered" structure is the first to loosen. Anyway, I now hold back my impulse to add positions; I want to see if the funds are just opening a window to breathe or preparing to pull the curtains shut.