Behind the US-Iran Talks Stalemate: A Life-or-Death Succession Power Game

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel carried out a joint strike against Iran, resulting in the death of the country’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. On March 8, his son Mojtaba was elected as the new Supreme Leader by a crushing majority, and the transfer of power in Iran was completed amid the fighting.

At first glance, it looks like a US-Iran showdown, but in essence it is a life-and-death struggle over power within Iran. Mojtaba’s foundation for ruling depends entirely on his father’s “legacy” and domestic anti-American sentiment. He lacks an independent base for governance; the only way is to keep manufacturing conflicts with the United States, so that domestic tensions can be shifted outward, factions can be rallied, and his position can be secured. Once the ceasefire negotiations move forward and he loses his “enemy,” he may very well lose control of the situation.

On April 11-12, the US and Iran held a 21-hour marathon of talks in Islamabad, but ultimately no agreement was reached. The core differences directly target Iran’s negotiation bottom line: control of the Strait of Hormuz, the unfreezing of overseas assets, and the issue of uranium enrichment—each of which concerns Mojtaba’s legitimacy to rule. The US insists that Iran give up its nuclear capabilities and return enriched uranium, while Iran demands war reparations and the right to maintain control over the strait; the two sides’ red lines are difficult to cross.

At present, US-Iran negotiations have not been completely shut down, but they have already fallen into a stalemate. Mojtaba’s hardline posture is not only aimed at pressuring the US in the struggle between them—it is also meant to intimidate and establish authority at home. This negotiation has long since gone beyond the dispute over US-Iran interests, and has become a key battlefield for the new Iranian leader to consolidate power. The hope for peace in the Middle East still depends on whether this new leader can break free from the constraints of the “patriarchal legacy” and make choices that truly concern people’s livelihoods and stability.