So we're heading into one of those weeks where literally everything matters for markets. US stocks just got hit three weeks running - S&P down 1.6%, Dow off 2%, Nasdaq dropped 1.3%. The culprit? Oil prices spiking past $100 a barrel again as tensions escalate over the Strait of Hormuz.

Here's what's got everyone's attention: The Fed meets Wednesday and the fed fund rate is expected to stay locked at 3.5% to 3.75%. Most people are already pricing that in. But here's the thing - Powell's press conference after the decision might actually be more important than the rate call itself. The guy's got divisions to manage inside the Fed. Some members are pushing for cuts because the labor market's softening. Others are sweating about inflation if oil keeps climbing. This is also Powell's second-to-last presser before his term ends in May, so market participants are hanging on every word.

The oil situation is getting real. Iran's been blocking the Strait of Hormuz for three weeks now - that's a 21-mile waterway that normally moves 14 million barrels daily. The Revolutionary Guard literally said no oil gets through. Prices broke $100 briefly, pulled back into the $80s, then climbed again after drone strikes hit infrastructure and Gulf states cut production. Goldman's modeling suggests if this stays blocked for 60 days, Brent could average $93 in Q4, with WTI around $89. The fed fund rate decisions could get complicated if energy inflation keeps accelerating.

On the earnings front, Micron reports Wednesday and that stock has absolutely ripped - more than quadrupled in a year on AI hardware demand. Last quarter they posted 60% revenue growth year-over-year and beat estimates. FedEx is Thursday and up nearly 25% already this year. People watch FedEx like a canary in the coal mine for overall economic health. Dollar Tree also reports this week - their last call mentioned consumers feeling stretched, so that'll be telling. Alibaba's Thursday too with plans to ramp up AI spending. Oklo, the nuclear energy play that signed a deal with Meta for data center power, reports Tuesday.

Nvidia's also hosting their big GTC conference starting Monday with Jensen Huang keynoting. So yeah - Fed policy, geopolitical risk, earnings, and major tech announcements all converging. The fed fund rate trajectory matters here because higher rates make those AI investments less attractive, but oil inflation could force the Fed's hand anyway. Definitely a week worth paying attention to.