Dialogue Strategist Mark Moss: By 2050, Bitcoin will reach $45 million, and the ability to hold wealth must be established.

Source: “When Shift Happens” Podcast

整理：Felix, PANews

Cryptocurrency strategist Mark Moss recently appeared on the “When Shift Happens” podcast, discussing perspectives such as 50-year technological revolution cycles, a basket of store-of-value assets, and de-dollarization geopolitics, predicting Bitcoin will reach $45 million by 2050. If it replaces the dollar as the global standard unit of account and becomes a neutral reserve asset, its value could even reach $500 million.

This prediction sounds quite crazy, but Moss also provides his analytical basis. PANews has summarized the highlights of the conversation.

Host: Every newcomer to Bitcoin asks themselves one question: How can I get rich with Bitcoin without relying on luck or falling into scams? People always have a desire to “get rich overnight.”

Mark Moss: I think this is a flaw of the fiat currency system. The debt system continually steals your wealth, while real wages fail to keep pace with rising costs. As a result, people have to take more extreme measures, taking bigger risks in an attempt to offset these losses. Lenin once told Keynes, the father of Keynesian economics, that the best way to destroy capitalism is to devalue the currency. Through a series of inflationary measures, they can loot wealth at will, and continue doing so until all wealth is wiped out. The best way to get rich would then be through gambling and theft. That’s our current situation. Look at how we see wealth accumulation today—most consider gambling the best way, like “YOLO” (You Only Live Once), putting all their money into meme coins, or gambling in Las Vegas. That’s seen as the best way to get rich today. Or theft—unfortunately, whether it’s Wall Street fraud or street robberies, thefts are rampant.

Although we live in such an environment, I believe this is not the best way to get rich. Sometimes luck can help, but the fact is, 75% of lottery winners go bankrupt within five years. This proves that relying on luck and high-stakes gambling to profit is not a path to wealth. Musicians and professional athletes who make three or four million, or even hundreds of millions of dollars, often end up bankrupt. So, yes, you might happen to make money on a meme stock or a crypto token, but the chances of holding onto that wealth are very slim. In many cases, it even ruins their lives because we need to develop the ability to hold wealth. Although no one wants to hear it, an inevitable part of the experience is that you must earn money and then 100% lose it. You need to go through gains and losses repeatedly. That’s how you learn to value it. Only when you lose it do you realize how precious it is. Then you tell yourself never to make the same mistake again. If you just got lucky once and made money, you will ultimately lose it and won’t know how to earn it back.

Host: That point is underestimated; there really is no such thing as a “fast track” to wealth. The crypto or Bitcoin space is just a slow path to wealth, or even a quick route to bankruptcy.

Mark Moss: I’d like to slightly counter that view. If you want, you can see it as a slow wealth-building strategy. The best way to accumulate wealth in the world has always been the stock market. Of course, the best way to build wealth is to start a business—be a creator, solve problems, and provide value to the world. The wealthiest people, like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates, built companies that solve difficult problems—this is the best way to get rich. After that, we invest the profits into real estate or the stock market to double our wealth. The real estate market and the S&P 500 have created most of the world’s wealthy. Looking at their 30-year returns, it’s about 7% to 8% annually. The wealthiest people, like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio, became rich through these markets with 7% to 8% returns.

Host: And now Bitcoin is growing every year. Buffett had about $1 million when he was 31 or 32, which shows that even after 60 years, you can still become a billionaire.

Mark Moss: But I must point out something about Buffett and Dalio. I see many people entering this space, wanting to quit their jobs and become full-time investors, thinking they can get rich like them. But I want to remind everyone, Buffett didn’t just get rich through investing; he built a company called Berkshire Hathaway, and he used to go there to work every day. Ray Dalio also built Bridgewater Associates and goes to work daily. So they are not just investors—they are entrepreneurs, and we need to balance both roles.

Returning to the previous point, they accumulated wealth through 7%-8% annual returns in real estate and the S&P 500. But in the past five years, Bitcoin’s annualized return has been 85%. Over the past three years, it’s about 60% per year. So when we say this is a “slow wealth-building” method, other markets only offer 8% returns, while Bitcoin offers 65%. How can that be slow? People are just in a state of extreme gambler’s frenzy, hoping to get everything in three weeks or three days. They really need to calm down. They have lost the correct understanding of life and have no basic concept of what wealth is. I often hear people complain that Bitcoin is too slow and they need something that triples their money in 30 days.

Host: Like you said, avoiding 3 to 5 times steady gains, and ending up losing 99%, is really tragic. This over-speculative gambling mentality is called “financial suicide.”

Mark Moss: Yes, Michael Saylor said that everyone’s investment portfolio should leave some room for risk. This ties back to the hierarchy of needs: first, build a solid foundation to ensure capital safety; if you want to gamble with some money, you can, but you need to separate it and only use a small portion of your funds. Professional investors always think from the perspective of risk-adjusted returns. The higher the potential return, the less we invest; the lower the risk, the more we invest. We don’t allocate money evenly. So if you want to chase those hundredfold gains for excitement, no problem, but only with a small part of your portfolio.

Host: Why do people think Bitcoin’s price will stop at 1 million?

Mark Moss: That’s just the next big round number, but there’s no reason to stop there. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the global store-of-value basket will reach $160 trillion by 2030, $380 trillion by 2040, and about $800 trillion by 2050. I believe the actual number could be even higher. Based on Bitcoin’s current growth rate, the compound annual growth rate over the next decade could average around 30%. By 2040, Bitcoin will account for about 8% of this value basket. In comparison, Uber and Airbnb captured 10% of the market share within 10 years. Once Bitcoin reaches 8%, its price would hit $14 million. By 2050, it could account for about 20% of the basket, pushing Bitcoin’s price to an astonishing $45 million.

Host: That sounds crazy. But a few days ago, I interviewed David Bailey, who said it’s entirely possible for Bitcoin to reach $50 million to $100 million someday.

Mark Moss: That’s entirely possible. I’ve done a lot of cycle research, including 4-year, 8-year, 50-year cycles. Every 50 years, a technological revolution occurs, and we are now in the sixth one. Bitcoin and AI happen to belong to this cycle. It involves four different stages. We can look at the diffusion of this innovation cycle through an S-curve. We are currently in the parabolic phase, and by around 2050, it should be fully adopted. Additionally, for thousands of years, money usually started as a “collectible.” If people believe in it, it becomes a store of value. Only when it has attributes like portability and durability can it become “money.” When enough people use it, it becomes a unit of account—that’s the final stage. Overlaying these four stages with the 50-year cycle chart, I believe by 2050, Bitcoin could become the world’s unit of account.

From a geopolitical perspective, the dollar has depreciated 99% over the past 110 years. What really pushed the world to the edge was NATO’s decision a few years ago to freeze Russia’s bank accounts. As a nuclear-armed superpower, having its funds confiscated is a warning to the world. Therefore, the BRICS countries are trying to issue their own currencies, and China is advancing CBDC cooperation. Everyone is looking for ways to escape the dollar. In the context of tariffs and a lack of mutual trust in this new world, countries are seeking to detach from the fiat system. The only way for the world to keep functioning is to find a neutral reserve asset, like the gold standard used before. And Bitcoin perfectly fits this requirement.

Combining the technical curve and geopolitical landscape, I believe between 2050 and 2060, Bitcoin will become the global unit of account. This means the $85 trillion store-of-value basket will no longer be dollar-denominated but Bitcoin-denominated. If we divide this $86 trillion by 21 million Bitcoins, each Bitcoin would be worth $4 to $500M.

Host: Hearing this, even the camera crew’s expressions look like they’re saying, “Oh no, I’d better go buy some Bitcoin quickly.”

Mark Moss: I know this sounds crazy, but Bitcoin’s design inherently means it will always go up. That’s because the true wealth of human society—goods and services—continually grows. We’re always inventing new things and solving new problems. Fiat currency dilutes your share of global wealth through printing, but Bitcoin’s total supply remains fixed; you will never be diluted. As long as I own one Bitcoin, I own one 21 millionth of the total wealth, and as global wealth increases forever, Bitcoin’s purchasing power will never be diluted.

Host: You once said that once you buy Bitcoin, your life will change. Why?

Mark Moss: Bitcoin changes your life for many reasons, but ultimately it begins to change your entire mindset, extending your time horizon for viewing problems. The purpose of the fiat system is to turn us into consumers, encouraging us to keep spending. One reason governments create inflation is to stimulate spending and boost the economy, but in reality, people should be incentivized to save. For example, during the pandemic, people stayed home and saved money, which hurt the economy. So governments injected trillions of dollars in stimulus to get people spending again. Our money depreciates too fast, which also pushes us to keep consuming because if we wait, things will become more expensive. But once we have Bitcoin, we realize that our money can actually buy more goods and services in the future. Under the Bitcoin system, you feel that buying things in the future will be cheaper. When Bitcoin rises 50% or 60% annually, it changes your cost of capital. You start asking: Do I really need that vacation? Do I need that new house or car? Because I can just keep that money in Bitcoin. Today’s Bitcoin worth a few tens of thousands of dollars could become $1 million in five years, and $15 million in 15 years. Would I be willing to spend $100k today, sacrificing $15 million in the future? Of course, if I want to buy a beach villa for my kids, I’d be willing to spend all my money for a great experience with them. But it also gives you a new perspective on all your decisions: “Do I really need this?” It changes our value system. Bitcoin makes you more cautious and selective, which is a good thing.

Host: You mentioned “my money depreciates very fast.” How fast does money in a bank account actually depreciate?

Mark Moss: Much faster than people imagine. Governments report the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the price increase of a basket of goods, usually aiming for around 2%. Fed Chair Powell has even hinted they might abandon this target and let inflation run moderately high. But CPI is just the result. What truly reflects the depreciation of your bank funds is the rate of increase in the money supply. Inflation is like inflating a balloon—adding more money in circulation. Over the past five years, global M2 money supply has grown about 8% annually, even faster in the US. So, you’re probably losing about 8% to 10% of your purchasing power each year. Add in a 2% risk premium, and your total loss is around 10% to 12%. This means any investment you make must return more than 10% annually. Once you realize you need to beat this 10% inflation barrier, your business and investment decisions become much clearer. If you have 17 assets to invest in, you’ll find that 15 of them can’t beat this 10%. So naturally, you focus only on the two that can—like Nasdaq tech stocks and Bitcoin.

Host: Even just the government’s 2% annual theft of our wealth sounds small, but over several years, that adds up. If it’s 10% to 15% compounded, your money shrinks by 40% to 50% over time—that’s astonishing.

Mark Moss: Exactly, that’s the power of compound interest. We often think linearly, ignoring the exponential effect. If we change our financial mindset slightly—saving just 10% of our income and investing it for 20 years—it can be enough to change our life trajectory. People often dismiss the small savings they make now, thinking it’s not worth the effort, but they overlook the enormous power of that money growing with compound interest over time.