Changjiang Nonferrous: Copper prices fall on the 2nd, market trading remains cautiously optimistic

Hot Topics

Selected Stocks Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading

Client

Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network

April 2 Copper Futures Market Update: Today, Shanghai copper futures opened high then fluctuated sharply downward, and declined further in the afternoon; the main contract for May 2605 opened at 96,300 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 96,970 yuan/ton and a low of 95,540 yuan/ton. Yesterday’s close was 96,540 yuan/ton. Today’s closing price was 95,880 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan, a decrease of 0.68%. The Shanghai copper main contract 2605 traded a total of 103,681 lots today, decreasing by 11,961 lots; open interest was 182,641 lots, down 3,610 lots. During the Asian session, London copper opened lower and continued to decline; as of 15:06 Beijing time, the latest quote was $12,300/ton, down $172.5/ton, a decrease of 1.38%.

Changjiang Copper Industry Network Copper Price Statistics: Today, domestic spot copper prices declined. The Changjiang spot 1#铜价报96350元/吨，跌730元，升水130-升水170，持平；长江综合1# copper price was 96,305 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan, with a premium of 50–160, up 10 yuan; Guangdong spot 1#铜价报96330元/吨，跌710元，升水30-升水230，涨20元；上海地区1# copper price was 96,240 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan, with a premium of 0–80, up 10 yuan.

Changjiang Copper Market Analysis: On Thursday during Asian hours, market concerns about potential further military strikes by U.S. President Trump on Iran sharply increased amid fears of Middle Eastern energy supply disruptions. Trump threatened to carry out “extremely heavy strikes” within the next two to three weeks, while Iran responded strongly, saying the war would continue until the enemy surrendered. These series of remarks instantly ignited risk aversion sentiment, causing crude oil prices to surge, the US dollar index to rebound strongly, and Asian stock markets to decline across the board, with the Nikkei leading the decline by over 2%.

Under macro headwinds, risk asset appetite has significantly cooled, putting pressure on copper prices. Despite the generally bearish macro sentiment, domestic fundamentals still provide some support. The “Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry” promoted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other eight departments is entering a critical phase. Demand for AI computing power and new energy is gradually replacing traditional infrastructure, becoming the core driver of copper consumption.

On the supply side, Afferro Mining lowered its copper mine production expectations for Congo (DRC) for 2026-2027. Coupled with domestic copper concentrate spot TC falling below historical lows, smelter profits are inverted, limiting capacity release. Additionally, stricter checks on “reverse invoicing” compliance have intensified, exacerbating local copper scrap shortages. On the demand side, the peak season inventory depletion has already shown signs of turning, with downstream operating rates gradually recovering, providing some support to spot prices. In the spot market, early in the session, sellers were eager to hold prices firm, but downstream buyers, affected by macro sentiment, remained cautious, with scattered transactions. In the afternoon, as copper prices continued to weaken and previous replenishment demand was exhausted, buying interest further waned, and market trading was not optimistic.

Looking at the market trend, geopolitical instability remains high, with Trump’s unpredictable remarks and Iran’s firm responses. Whether the Federal Reserve can regain market focus remains uncertain. Concerns about stagflation continue to overshadow financial markets. Given copper’s financial attributes, any turbulence can easily trigger market volatility. Today’s remarks from Trump quickly pulled the market back into risk aversion, with funds taking profits at high levels, exerting clear pressure on metal prices. Therefore, until the Strait of Hormuz shipping issue is resolved, caution is advised.

In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a range trading strategy, buy on dips, avoid chasing highs, and focus on copper prices in the 93,000–98,000 yuan/ton range. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate within a wide range.

Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network www.ccmn.cn Phone: 0592-5668838

Sina Cooperative Major Platform Futures Account Opening, Safe, Fast, and Secure

Massive Information, Precise Analysis, All in Sina Finance APP

Editor: Li Tiemin