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What is ATH? It's a term you inevitably hear when trading. Officially, it stands for "All Time High," and in Japanese, it's read as "All Time High." In the world of cryptocurrencies, it's a truly important concept.
Let's start by understanding how to read ATH. It's not just a term; it refers to the highest price level an asset has reached from the past up to now. For example, if Bitcoin is currently at $126,080, that would be its ATH. This moment is also an exciting and hopeful time for investors.
But in reality, jumping in at the moment it hits ATH can be risky. Buying at the lowest price and selling at the highest should yield big profits, but if you buy at ATH and sell later, you might suffer significant losses during the subsequent correction phase. This is a trap many beginners fall into.
When an ATH appears, market psychology enters a special state. Usually, there isn't an excess supply or strong selling pressure from the bearish side; rather, upward pressure from the bullish side dominates. Many traders instinctively jump in here, but this often leads to irrational decision-making.
Therefore, how to respond during an ATH phase is crucial. What I practice is thorough technical analysis. I check Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6% on the chart to identify support and resistance levels. Moving averages (MA) are also useful; if the price is below the MA line, it suggests a possible downward trend.
As the price approaches ATH, it may seem like resistance levels have disappeared, but in fact, clear resistance factors still exist. After the price rises to ATH, the market absorbs most of the supply, but a correction period lasting several weeks to months is often necessary.
To understand this process, analyzing the three stages of price breakthroughs is effective. In the first stage, "Action," the price surpasses resistance levels with above-average trading volume. In the second stage, "Reaction," the upward momentum weakens, buying pressure decreases, and the price consolidates. In the final "Resolution" stage, a significant change in buying and selling momentum occurs, determining whether a breakout trend is confirmed.
It's also important to identify basic candlestick patterns (such as rounded bottoms or square bottoms) right below the ATH point. This increases the reliability of the breakout. Additionally, using Fibonacci retracements from the lowest point to the breakout point to pre-identify key levels like 1.270, 1.618, 2.000, and 2.618 is key to maximizing profits.
Setting profit-taking points in advance is also essential. Decide on the minimum profit level you want to achieve, and set your take-profit points either as a percentage or an absolute value. When increasing your position, only do so if the risk-reward ratio is favorable and the price is supported by the MA line.
In an ATH phase, investors' responses vary. Long-term investors who believe in the value may hold their entire position. However, before doing so, they need to carefully analyze whether the current ATH is temporary or a true turning point.
Most investors opt for partial selling. In this case, they use Fibonacci extensions to measure psychological resistance levels and make sell decisions. Identifying the bottoms that formed the previous ATH and the latest ATH is a crucial point.
If choosing to sell everything, Fibonacci analysis is also useful. When Fibonacci extensions match the ATH price, it suggests the upward trend may be ending, making a full sell-off a reasonable decision to maximize profits.
By understanding how to read ATH and following these rules, even beginners can make appropriate decisions during critical market phases. If you have thoughts or experiences about how to handle crypto ATHs, please share them in the comments section.