#美伊停火协议谈判再生变故

The current US-Iran "ceasefire" is only a fragile temporary arrangement, and "joint management of the Strait of Hormuz" is still an unresolved negotiation goal. For foreign exchange and gold, the core variable is not the ceasefire itself, but the permanent change in the control rules of the Strait of Hormuz—if Iran successfully institutionalizes toll collection, the foundation of the petrodollar will be substantially impacted, which will benefit non-dollar currencies like the RMB in the medium to long term, and provide ongoing support for a de-dollarization narrative for gold. In the short term, gold is experiencing a difficult struggle where its safe-haven attribute is suppressed by high interest rates, with both bulls and bears waiting for further clarity on upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve policy directions.