Guotai Junan Futures: Without observing a slowdown in the accumulation slope, the negative feedback in coal and coke is unlikely to ferment.

Selling out-of-the-money call options and holding until expiration, paying attention to the opportunity for valuation recovery after the delivery game ends in September.
The recent market correction mainly reflects the following reasons: First, the April contract enters the delivery month, and the price difference between the 4-5 month contracts has reached -134, providing profit margins for selling April and buying May; the market is willing to focus on trading May based on April.
Second, the disturbance of warehouse receipts is difficult to resolve; feedback from surveys indicates that the supply for delivery is still not insignificant, and the market is concentrated in a short squeeze scenario.
Regarding subsequent strategies, selling out-of-the-money call options can continue to be held until expiration, but as this round of rolling over contracts ends, based on the current fundamentals of coking coal, it is recommended to pay more attention to the opportunity for valuation recovery in the September contract.
On one hand, the fundamentals of coking coal are not bad at present; although steel mills are experiencing losses due to rising raw material prices, there is still an expectation of resuming ironmaking production later. Without signs of inventory accumulation slowing down, negative feedback is unlikely to ferment.
On the other hand, uncertainties from geopolitical disturbances are increasing. As the war prolongs, many market-driven emotional disturbances are gradually becoming reality, such as production issues at mines caused by diesel shortages.
Therefore, in the context of market sentiment being difficult to dissipate and the industry fundamentals remaining relatively healthy, after completing this round of delivery game trading, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity for valuation recovery in the distant months.
(Guotai Junan Futures)