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I just noticed that Bitcoin options worth $1.42B are expiring on Friday, accounting for nearly 40% of Deribit's open interest. Importantly, the max pain price is locked at $75,000, which could become a magnet for the price. Currently, BTC is around $71.7K, with about $3,300 of upward movement needed to reach that key level.
From market trends, institutional investors have recently sold large amounts of call options at higher strike prices, which usually indicates a cautious bullish sentiment. Implied volatility is also decreasing, with the DVOL index dropping about 6 points, suggesting traders expect a relatively stable expiration without significant volatility. According to Deribit executives, despite geopolitical uncertainties, the market seems to be preparing for an orderly expiration. The put-to-call ratio remains healthy at 0.63, further confirming market stability expectations.
Interestingly, the $75,000 level is also considered a key resistance by many analysts, and a breakout could trigger a stronger upward rally. Historically, market makers' hedging activities around options expiration tend to push prices toward max pain, which is why this level garners so much attention.
On the other hand, XRP's performance isn't as optimistic. During the same period, XRP quickly dropped from $1.36 to $1.33, with trading volume significantly increasing, indicating institutional selling rather than liquidity exhaustion. Now, $1.35 has become the new resistance level, with multiple rejections at the $1.40-$1.41 zone. Compared to BTC's steady performance, XRP's decline appears somewhat abrupt.