This week, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, and here’s what really matters for crypto traders. No one expects a cut, but the key will be what Powell says at the press conference. His words can turn the market in any direction.

Currently, the rate is fixed at 3.5%-3.75%, and according to CME forecasts, there is a 96% probability that it will remain unchanged. This makes sense, considering there have already been three consecutive cuts. Powell hinted back in December that the committee does not plan new cuts until 2026. But here’s the question: is this pause a signal of tight monetary policy or a soft one?

If Powell starts talking about inflation risks, it could dampen hopes for a quick rate cut. The market could crash, the dollar strengthen, and Bitcoin come under pressure. But if he indicates that the pause is temporary and cuts will resume in the coming months, it will support risk assets, including crypto.

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to send a dovish signal. The statement is likely to emphasize economic resilience while leaving the door open for future adjustments. This is a good scenario for Bitcoin.

But there’s another factor — Trump’s measures on housing affordability. He plans to buy $200 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities and ban large investors from buying single-family homes. ING analysts believe this could boost inflation in the housing sector, which in turn might cool prospects for a second rate cut this year. If Powell acknowledges