What is the actual traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz? Analysts visit the scene in person to "count ships": it’s not a "deadlock," but "dynamic enforcement," and shipping volume may not decrease but instead increase.

Pengpai News Reporter Sun Mingwei

As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains complex and unpredictable, an analyst personally visited the scene and conducted an on-site investigation.

On April 6, U.S. research firm Citrini Research released a sensational report in the financial world, stating that “Analyst 3” (internal code name “Agent 3”) concluded from his firsthand experience in the Strait of Hormuz that the situation there is not simply on a trajectory from escalation to closure. Instead, two paths are advancing simultaneously: one involving confirmed attacks and shipping disruptions, and the other involving proactive, toll-based selective passage and multilateral diplomatic efforts.

Citrini Research had previously released a market-shaking report in February, depicting scenarios where AI could severely damage the global economy, which was highly controversial and criticized as “science fiction.” This on-site investigation into the Strait of Hormuz has brought some unexpected conclusions.

“We initially thought that this trip would only yield a vague conclusion of ‘strait open or closed,’ and we knew that this investigation might be futile and fruitless. But in fact, we gained a more detailed and profound understanding of the current situation and the process of the world’s transition to multipolarity,” the report states.

Iran Sets Up “Toll Booths”

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf, the Oman Gulf, and open seas, and is the world’s most critical chokepoint for energy transportation. Since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and the tense situation in the Strait, debates over whether the “world’s oil valve” will be closed have never ceased.

On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, and ongoing hostilities caused the Strait of Hormuz to become “blocked,” triggering global energy shortages and sharp fluctuations in international energy markets. According to CCTV News, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of February 28 that all ships were prohibited from passing through the Strait.

“If I go directly to the Strait of Hormuz?” Citrini Research states that to understand the real situation, Analyst 3, proficient in four languages including Arabic, took a Xiaomi phone equipped with a 150x zoom Leica camera, a global maritime distress and safety system beacon, $15,000 in cash, a gimbal, and a set of microphones packed into a Pelican case, and personally went to the edge of the strait to “count ships.”

This 18k-word report shows that the long-reliable AIS system (Automatic Identification System for ships) failed here. The on-site findings revealed that the actual number of ships passing through the strait far exceeded publicly available data. Analyst 3 concluded that in the current conflict environment, the AIS system underreports about half of the ships passing daily. This is because many ships, to avoid risks, choose to turn off AIS signals or bypass “hidden corridors” not marked on public maps. Relying solely on AIS data, the market could severely misjudge the strait’s capacity, mistaking a “half-full” pipeline for “depleted.”

Analyst 3 found that the Strait of Hormuz is not “deadlocked,” but rather “dynamically enforced.” Contrary to the market’s common worry that “Iran will torch and blockade the strait,” the analyst discovered that Iran does not want the strait to be closed. This is not chaotic warfare but an organized control, which the report calls a “toll booth” model.

The operational logic of this system is as follows: ships seeking passage (mainly oil tankers from Japan, France, Greece, and other non-hostile countries) must submit detailed information through specific intermediaries, including ownership, cargo, and crew details. After paying a substantial “toll and service fee,” ships receive an authorization code and may even be escorted through by Iran. Ships that do not comply face detention or waiting.

This mode creates an unsettling “compromise”: the Strait of Hormuz is not paralyzed but operates in a controlled and selective manner. Iran, through this approach, asserts sovereignty, gains urgently needed cash flow, and avoids total loss of control. For most countries in the world, although paying protection fees for passage is unseemly, it has become a workable compromise for energy supply.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Aladdin Burojedi, a member of Iran’s Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) on March 30 that a new system for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would be implemented after passing through the Iranian parliament. Ships must be approved by Iran to pass, and Iran will ensure their safety and collect tolls.

Drawing Several Counterintuitive Conclusions

Based on these observations, Citrini Research has drawn several conclusions that are completely different from market intuition, with profound implications for the global economy and energy markets.

First, shipping volume may not decrease but increase. The report predicts that regardless of how the ground conflict escalates, the volume of shipping through the strait could gradually rise. This is because Iran needs to maintain the operation of this “toll booth” to generate revenue and demonstrate management capability. There are even signs that, as the U.S. expands more ground operations, as long as Iran’s control is not directly destroyed, this “controlled passage” mode will continue.

Second, super-large oil tankers are withdrawing, and smaller ships are becoming dominant. To adapt to this high-risk, highly controlled environment, shipping patterns are undergoing structural adjustments. Large ultra-large tankers, due to their size and flexibility limitations, are decreasing, replaced by liquefied petroleum gas carriers and convenient oil tankers. This means the efficiency of the global energy supply chain is declining, and unit transportation costs are rising.

“If our judgment that the volume of passage will continue to rise is wrong, and by mid to late April the volume does not keep increasing but instead reverts to a de facto closure, then global stock markets are likely to plunge sharply, with declines of about 15%-20%,” the report states. “Our current basic expectation is that as conflicts escalate and ferment, stock markets will continue to experience intense volatility, but market concerns over a global energy crisis will gradually be replaced by a more rational understanding—that is, the volume of passage will gradually rebound. Energy prices will remain high but not catastrophic, and both phenomena will occur simultaneously.”

According to Xinhua, U.S. President Trump claimed on April 6 during a White House press conference that the toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be collected by the United States, not Iran.

When asked how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that reopening must be part of a plan to end the conflict. “A deal I can accept must be reached, and one of its terms is to ensure the free passage of oil and various supplies.”

According to Xinhua, the UK-based maritime analysis firm Windward stated on April 6 that the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is shifting to a “dual-channel system,” consisting of a northern route controlled by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a southern new route along the Oman coast.