🔥Bitunix Analyst: Energy-driven inflation confirmed, rate decline path hindered

On April 11th, U.S. March CPI data shows that the inflation rebound is energy-driven, with overall CPI rising 0.9% month-over-month, including a 10.9% surge in energy and a 21.2% spike in gasoline, contributing nearly three-quarters of the increase. Core CPI only rose 0.2%, indicating demand-side overheating is absent, and the economy is in a cost-push inflation structure. This structure limits policy space, and the exogenous nature of energy inflation makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to directly curb it through interest rate hikes, while the overall CPI increase suppresses policy shifts. The market has entered a policy stagnation zone; if energy prices remain high, inflation expectations may become unanchored, forcing long-term high interest rates. Market pricing consolidates expectations of sustained high rates, with rate cut expectations compressed, liquidity limited, and risk assets facing valuation pressures. Capital logic…