Finding warmth in division: Holiday real estate market signals a "small spring"

During the Qingming holiday, spring is gradually intensifying, and the real estate market in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, is quietly warming up. In Rongjiang New District, the Yun Ding Yi Hao project, positioned as an improved residential development and the first new regulation fourth-generation residential project in Ganzhou, has attracted many citizens to visit and inquire. The scene is bustling with people, and staff members are busy shuttling around.

“During the Qingming holiday, the number of people viewing houses each day has doubled compared to before, with over 40 groups of clients consulting daily. Everyone’s enthusiasm for buying and viewing houses is high,” said Huang Jinfu, marketing director of the Yun Ding Yi Hao project. Since the end of last year, the project has launched 246 residential units, with 165 units sold so far, showing a clear absorption rate.

Data confirms the market’s revitalization. According to the Ganzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, in March, the city’s residential filing area increased by 19.9% year-on-year and 40.08% month-on-month; the central urban area saw increases of 59.4% and 80.18%, respectively.

Similar scenes also appeared in Zibo, Shandong. On the morning of April 4, at the Xinhongcheng Qiyuan sales office in Zibo, citizen Fang Xin rushed to view houses before the holiday began. As a “new dad,” he is concerned about the soundproofing and the hassle-free renovation process of the house.

“Currently, the 143-square-meter three-bedroom, two-living room units are the main type sold by the project, and the overall sell-through rate of all available units has reached 65%,” said He Ye, marketing manager of the project. From April 1 to April 3 alone, 20 contracts were signed. During the entire Qingming holiday, over 100 groups visited, with transaction volume reaching 13 million yuan.

In first-tier cities, replacement demand has become the core driver of market recovery. Mr. Wang (pseudonym), a resident of Wangjing Xiyuan in Beijing, owns a one-bedroom unit. To meet the living needs of his children and elderly family members, he hopes to exchange for a higher-quality three-bedroom in Wangjing. His initial plan was to “sell first, buy later,” to complete the swap cautiously. However, market changes prompted him to adjust his strategy decisively.

“Since January this year, the number of people viewing my property has increased significantly, and several of the units I was interested in have quickly sold,” Mr. Wang said. The anxiety of ‘missing out and not being able to buy’ made him realize he could no longer wait passively. On April 3, he visited a Beijing Lianjia Wangjing branch, and after two days of viewings, he decisively decided to “buy first, sell later.” After thorough communication with the new home owner, both parties agreed on a five-month transaction cycle, giving him time to sell his current home. Ultimately, on April 5, Mr. Wang successfully completed the signing, accelerating his family’s upgrade process.

Gao Yuan, director of the Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, said that based on March data, the overall volume and stable prices of the second-hand market in Beijing indicate the arrival of a “small spring” as expected. According to Lianjia Research Institute, in March, the second-hand housing online signing volume in Beijing reached 19,886 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 144.6%, reaching the highest level in nearly 15 months. Looking at the more advanced tripartite agreement signings, the transaction volume of second-hand housing tripartite agreements by major brokerages increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with the actual monthly transaction volume reaching its highest in nearly 17 months.

Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that the “small spring” trend in the housing market in the first quarter has been effectively extended during the Qingming holiday. On one hand, overall market activity remains high, with steady growth in key indicators such as new project launches, continuing the recovery momentum since the first quarter. On the other hand, feedback from intermediaries in Shanghai and other cities indicates that the “sell old, buy new” replacement chain has been further streamlined, significantly more so than in previous years.

“This is not only reflected in the faster pace of second-hand listings and the continuous increase in supply but also in the active and positive state of the new housing market,” Yan Yuejin said. The sustained impact and synergy of a series of favorable policies, especially the implementation of housing provident fund support policies, have further stabilized and boosted market expectations. This has laid a solid foundation for continuing the “small spring” trend in April and promoting steady market recovery.

Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that this year’s “small spring” is more structural, with second-hand homes outperforming new homes overall, rather than a broad price increase. He believes that as the second-hand replacement chain gradually opens up, the new housing market is expected to see a relay of improved demand. The nationwide market is expected to continue its structural recovery trend in April and May. The China Index Academy believes that the concentration of high-quality projects entering the market in the second quarter, combined with policy support, will underpin transactions in core cities.

However, Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Urban Planning Institute’s Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated, and policies must be continuously optimized to stabilize expectations. “Steady progress with differentiation” will be the main tone of the housing market in 2026, and a full recovery still requires support from multiple factors such as population, industry, and finance.