Bank personal loan bad debt pressure suddenly rises, and credit card delinquency rate is projected to reach a maximum of 4.6% in 2025.

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Cailian Press, April 8 (Editor: Yang Bin) From the recent published 2025 annual reports of listed banks, although their non-performing loan ratios remain stable or slightly decline, the asset quality of personal loans still faces pressure.

Cailian Press has summarized the changes in the non-performing rates of various types of personal loans for listed banks up to now, indicating that credit card loan asset quality is under significant pressure. Some banks’ non-performing loan ratio for credit cards in 2025 has reached 4.61%, an increase of over 1 percentage point. Meanwhile, commercial banks are no longer solely focused on metrics like the number of credit cards issued or loan scale, but are paying more attention to credit card asset quality.

Among other personal loan types, the non-performing rates for personal housing loans and business loans are both rising, while only consumer loans have seen a decline. Industry analysts believe that the non-performing rate of retail loans has not yet reached a turning point downward.

High non-performing rate of credit card personal loans; industry no longer pursues business scale

According to previous reports by Cailian Press, among the listed banks that have disclosed their 2025 annual reports, 19 have revealed their personal non-performing loans. In stark contrast to the non-performing rate of corporate loans, nearly all banks have seen an upward trend in personal loan non-performing rates, with only three banks experiencing a decline in 2025. For example, Bohai Bank’s personal loan non-performing rate is as high as 3.80%, with some banks seeing an increase of over 0.5 percentage points in 2025.

Further analysis shows that credit card loans are the “hotspot” of personal loan non-performing assets. Twelve banks have disclosed their credit card non-performing loan ratios and comparable data, with three exceeding 3%, and seven showing an increase. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s credit card non-performing loan ratio in 2025 reached 4.61%, up 1.11 percentage points. Minsheng Bank’s ratio is also at 3.87%, up 0.59 percentage points.

Chart: Credit card non-performing loan ratio and changes among listed banks in 2025

(Source: Choice Data, compiled by Cailian Press)

Postal Savings Bank of China is the only one among the six major state-owned banks to see a decline in credit card non-performing rates, and its non-performing rate remains relatively low among peers, at 1.45% in 2025. The bank stated in its annual report that it seized the opportunity of national policies to boost consumption, promoted quality upgrades in credit card financial services, accelerated the systematic development of credit card business capabilities, enhanced centralized operations, improved comprehensive financial services for retail customers, and achieved positive results in high-quality development.

Additionally, Industrial Bank, Ping An Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank have maintained good risk control over credit card loans, with their non-performing rates decreasing by 0.30, 0.32, and 0.53 percentage points respectively in 2025.

Industrial Bank mentioned in its annual report that the company continuously improves its digital risk control model system and full-process risk monitoring system, optimizes credit approval strategies, strengthens risk identification and management during the loan process, enhances the coordination between head office and branches in collection efforts, and that the risk management for new card issuance and existing customers has been steadily improving, effectively curbing the growth of new non-performing assets.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank also actively implements its digital and intelligent strategy, responds proactively to new regulatory requirements, embraces financial technology, continuously improves the full-process risk management system, and adopts targeted measures to strengthen risk defenses, deepen “controlling new and reducing old” strategies. It ensures strict control at the pre-loan customer acquisition stage, focuses on high-quality customer management, improves the quality of new customers, and diligently advances risk mitigation and collection efforts during and after the loan process.

According to the People’s Bank of China’s “Overall Operation of the Payment System in 2025,” as of the end of 2025, the total number of credit cards in the country (including combined credit and debit cards) was 696 million, the first time falling below 700 million, a decrease of about 31 million from the end of 2024. The number of credit card issuances has been declining for several years, and commercial banks are no longer solely pursuing issuance volume but are generally cleaning up dormant and inefficient cards.

For banks that disclose credit card loan balances, the figures generally declined in 2025. For example, China Construction Bank, the leader in credit cards, was the only bank with a credit card loan balance exceeding one trillion yuan in 2025, reaching 1.01 trillion yuan, though still slightly down year-on-year.

Chart: Credit card loan balances and changes among listed banks in 2025

(Source: Choice Data, compiled by Cailian Press)

At the earnings presentation, Wang Liang, President of China Merchants Bank, pointed out that in recent years, the bank has adhered to a “stable and low-volatility” strategy, carefully selecting customer groups and preventing risks. To control asset quality, the bank has accepted the decline in revenue contribution from credit card business. As a result, the asset quality of credit card loans has remained relatively stable.

By the end of 2025, China Merchants Bank’s non-performing credit card ratio was 1.74%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points, remaining among the lower levels in the industry.

Personal housing and business loans both show rising non-performing rates; only consumer loans decline

The non-performing rate of personal housing loans is also showing a significant upward trend. Among 13 banks that disclosed data, only Minsheng, Ping An, and Bank of China saw a slight decline in their 2025 personal housing loan non-performing rates, while ICBC and Bank of Communications saw increases of 0.33 and 0.43 percentage points respectively.

Huatai Securities banking analyst Shen Juan believes that the rise in mortgage non-performing rates is partly due to fluctuations in housing prices and the pressure on the loan-to-value ratio of some loans, and partly because borrowers’ income cash flow pressures have increased.

Chart: Non-performing loan ratio of personal housing loans among listed banks in 2025

(Source: Choice Data, compiled by Cailian Press)

Regarding business loans, among 10 banks that disclosed data, 8 saw an increase in non-performing rates in 2025, with only Pudong Development Bank and China Construction Bank experiencing slight declines. Among large state-owned banks, ICBC and Bank of Communications saw increases of 0.55 and 0.73 percentage points respectively in their business loan non-performing rates.

Chart: Non-performing loan ratio of personal business loans among listed banks in 2025

(Source: Choice Data, compiled by Cailian Press)

In city and rural commercial banks, Yunnan Rural Commercial Bank reported increases in both personal housing and business loan non-performing rates. The bank stated that due to complex external environments and insufficient domestic effective demand, the non-performing balances and ratios of retail loans have risen compared to the end of the previous year.

Regarding the rising trend of personal loan non-performing rates, Bank of Communications pointed out in its annual report that, affected by macroeconomic conditions and the downward trend in the real estate market, the overall quality of retail credit assets in the domestic banking industry is under pressure. Going forward, the bank will continue to strengthen business entry and customer management, iterate and optimize approval strategies, enhance fraud risk controls, improve collection and recovery capabilities for retail loans, and maintain asset quality management.

Additionally, Bohai Bank has not yet disclosed its 2025 personal loan non-performing rates by segment, but its 2024 annual report shows that the non-performing rate for housing loans was 1.98%, for commercial loans 4.62%, and for personal consumer loans as high as 12.37%, all at very high levels among state-owned banks.

The 2025 annual reports of banks show that among the four main types of retail loans, only consumer loans saw a decline in non-performing rates, with 7 out of 10 banks that disclosed data experiencing a decrease in 2025.

Chart: Non-performing loan ratio of personal consumer loans among listed banks in 2025

(Source: Choice Data, compiled by Cailian Press)

Industrial Research believes that in 2025, the non-performing rates of personal housing loans and personal business loans at major nationwide banks showed more prominent upward trends. Further, among banks that disclose their personal loan concern rates, it is observed that while credit card concern rates remain high, concern rates for personal housing loans, personal consumer loans, and personal business loans are also rising. Therefore, the downward turning point for retail loan non-performing rates may not have yet arrived.

(Cailian Press, Yang Bin)