Yesterday, two major macro items stood out. First is the CPI data. Although what was released was pretty high, it doesn’t have much impact on the market. After all, it’s collateral damage from the high oil prices brought by the war. The good news is that the US and Iran have already temporarily paused their hostilities, and market expectations for a ceasefire are still fairly high. So this CPI report has little effect, and the market has already fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of the year.

The other item is the negotiations between the US and Iran. Today, representatives from both sides have arrived in Pakistan. The US representative is Vance. Although the Pakistani Prime Minister has placed very strong expectations on this round of talks, the market generally believes the odds of reaching a deal in one go are low—especially while Israel is still carrying out attacks against Lebanon. Even Trump himself believes the probability that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in the short term is not high.

We’re already into the weekend now, and I always worry that Trump might pull some stunts over the weekend. Hopefully there’s nothing going on this week, and we can have a quiet weekend. I also hope that at least this weekend, Iran and the US can reach the conditions to continue negotiations. Based on current Bitcoin data, on-chain activity overall is pretty ordinary. BTC below 70,000 still shows strong buying interest. The situation in which long-term investors sell at low prices is becoming less and less common. At this point, the short-term BTC reversal still hasn’t ended. As long as there’s no new development in monetary policy, it may still be in a rebound trend.