Haitong Futures: Currently, lithium carbonate has lost its cost safety margin

Currently, lithium carbonate has lost its cost safety margin; the remaining main logic is: supply and demand gaps combined with low inventory, along with new battery cell factories engaging in hedge positions. According to the current development of the Middle East situation, Zimbabwe’s export ban will begin to affect domestic spot supply around May, and today’s market also clearly shows that a war cannot continue for a month; there are signs of capital fleeing. The weekly Thursday SMM inventory data has long had minimal impact on the market. The subsequent trend is likely to be spot prices moving with futures, and today’s price has shifted from a discount to a premium, similar to the 23-year pure soda ash 2309 market. The upward curve of lithium carbonate in 2026 is defined by energy storage; as we mentioned earlier, most projects above 200k lose their commercial energy storage value, which may be a temporary peak. In market trading, the demand adjustment for lithium batteries caused by the Iran war in the Middle East, if local transportation risks do not decrease, will more likely trigger structural demand-side impacts in the medium term, with subsequent reduction risks estimated at 15-20 GWh. Under the background of potential weakening in EV and BESS demand, I have learned that major lithium plant orders are being cut, and leading resource companies have short positions around 170k, with excessive short covering, indicating no trend in the short term. In disorderly fluctuations, both bullish and bearish choices are difficult; continue to watch for buying opportunities near the MA60, and add positions if stabilized. The outlook remains bullish for the year, but short-term volatility is intense, making long-term holding difficult. Considering the current liquidity tightening in spot markets, capital behavior, and demand feedback that is not weak, there could be a wave of crazy gains. Short-term impact is low, but in the medium to long term, it’s still necessary to hold a bottom position to prevent sudden new events and prepare in advance. ( Haitong Futures )