Refined oil products will face a price adjustment window, and institutions expect U.S. crude oil to decline in a stepped manner over the next three months.

Originally from: China News Service

China News Service, April 6 — (Chen Junming) The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin at 24:00 on April 7. Institutions predict that this round of oil prices is highly likely to increase.

On the day of the last oil price adjustment, (March 23), the National Development and Reform Commission stated that since the domestic refined oil price adjustment on March 9, affected by the escalation of conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran, international crude oil prices have surged significantly, especially in the Middle East where crude oil prices hit record highs. To mitigate the impact of abnormal international oil price increases, reduce downstream user burdens, ensure stable economic operation, and social livelihood, temporary regulatory measures have been taken to adjust domestic refined oil prices within the current pricing mechanism framework. After the adjustment, for private car owners, based on a tank capacity of 50–60 liters, filling a tank with 92-octane gasoline can save about 40–50 yuan.

Research report from Longzhong Information shows that during this price adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have maintained an upward trend, and refined oil prices are also expected to rise. As of April 2, the average reference crude oil price during this cycle was $109.06 per barrel, up 2.24% from the previous cycle. It is estimated that when the price adjustment window opens, the theoretical increase in refined oil prices will be around 130 yuan per ton, and this round of adjustment is highly likely to be an increase.

Jinlianchuang states that recently, crude oil has shown a pattern of rising sharply and then falling back, with weekly average prices increasing week-over-week. Although high oil prices have begun to suppress some oil consumption, overall demand still shows strong resilience. It is expected that global crude oil demand will gradually rise to about 106M barrels per day, remaining at a high level. Due to limited demand decline, it is difficult to fully offset the impact of supply contraction, and the market remains in a tight balance or even shortage.

Longzhong Information predicts that according to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, on April 8, the corresponding increase in refined oil prices will be about 130 yuan per ton, marking the sixth increase of the year. If this price increase occurs, based on a 70-liter tank, private car owners will spend about 6.7 yuan more to fill a tank.

China News Service notes that this year, domestic oil prices have undergone six adjustments, categorized as “five increases and one pause.” The domestic gasoline and diesel prices have increased by 2,320 and 2,235 yuan per ton respectively since the end of last year. As expected, this round of price adjustment will be an increase, and the pricing pattern in 2026 will become “six increases and one pause.”

According to the “ten working days” principle, the next retail price adjustment window for refined oil will open at 24:00 on April 21, 2026.

Looking ahead, Longzhong Information’s research report indicates that the US has stated it will not entangle in Iran for too long, and future conflicts are expected to decrease in intensity. Negotiations are ongoing among multiple countries regarding the navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Coupled with recent high volatility in international oil prices, the probability of a downward adjustment in the next round of refined oil prices is relatively high.

Jinlianchuang believes that regarding the ceasefire, the diplomatic signals from the US and Iran are ambiguous, so the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and shipping uncertainties still exist. If the US quickly ends the Iran conflict, oil prices will accelerate downward; otherwise, they will continue to rise.

Zhuochuang Information’s research report states that the core disagreements between the US and Iran are difficult to reconcile, and the conflict has fallen into a stalemate. The efficiency of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and geopolitical risks have not shown clear signs of easing. Under this background, international oil prices may remain high with wide fluctuations, and extreme price swings triggered by unexpected escalation of the conflict should be closely watched. By May and June, geopolitical events may gradually subside, risk aversion in the market will decrease, and crude oil prices are expected to gradually fall from high levels. It is estimated that the average monthly US crude oil price over the next three months will be $94.69 per barrel, $86.37 per barrel, and $72.51 per barrel, showing a stepwise downward trend. (China News Service APP)

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