Global Media Focus | IMF Chief: Middle East Conflict Puts the World Economy at "High Inflation and Low Growth"

Ask AI · How Middle East conflict affects global inflation through energy supply

IMF Chief Georgieva Interviewed by Reuters

The UK Reuters published an article on April 6, citing IMF Chief Georgieva’s views that the Middle East conflict will lead to increased global inflation and a slowdown in global economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will hold their 2026 Spring Meetings from April 13 to 18, and are expected to release a new World Economic Outlook report on April 14.

Georgieva said in an interview on the 6th, “If this war had not occurred, we could have seen upward revisions in growth expectations.” She stated that the IMF originally expected to slightly raise its forecasts for global economic growth in 2026 and 2027 to 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. “But now, higher prices and slower growth are unavoidable.”

London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) released a percentage chart of energy commodity prices since January 2026

Key Points Overview

• Serious Impact on Energy Supply:

  The conflict and Iran’s restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz (a shipping channel for one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas) have triggered one of the most severe energy supply disruptions in history, with global crude oil supply currently reduced by about 13%.

• IMF Economic Growth Forecast:

  Even if the current Middle East conflict ends quickly, it will not change the IMF’s decision to downgrade global economic growth forecasts and upgrade global inflation expectations. If the conflict prolongs, the impact on the global economy will be even more profound.

• Multiple Negative Chain Reactions:

  In addition to soaring oil and natural gas prices, the conflict has affected the global supply chains of commodities such as fertilizers, helium, phosphates, and aluminum, and has severely impacted tourism in related regions.

• Asymmetric Impact:

  The economic shocks caused by the Middle East conflict are highly “asymmetric” worldwide: poor and vulnerable countries lacking energy reserves are most severely affected, with some low-income nations already seeking financial aid from the IMF.

Georgieva finally warned that increasing tensions in the Middle East add to the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, and the IMF urges governments to adopt cautious policies to mitigate the shocks.

Source | China Central Television Global News

Editor | Gong Chen

Review | Chen Meng

Supervision | Liu Yiyao