Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. March CPI data will be officially released. The importance of this data is self-evident—it can even be called a watershed for short-term market direction.

My judgment still leans toward the bearish side.

This inflation data is the first report to fully reflect the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions and the major surge in energy prices. With oil prices continuing to rise, the pace of inflation easing is very likely to be interrupted. Combined with the job market still remaining strong, the demand side has not cooled off noticeably, and there are signs that overall inflationary pressure may rise again.

From the perspective of capital market reaction, the bond market has already sent a signal—large amounts of funds have begun positioning for expectations of rising yields. Market views on rate cuts within the year have clearly shifted: shrinking from the previous multiple rate-cut expectations down to only one, and the probability of it happening continues to decline. If tonight’s CPI is higher than expected, the timing of rate cuts will be pushed back again, and there may even be renewed discussions about rate hikes. In that case, market sentiment can very easily and quickly turn cautious, or even panic.

Against this macro backdrop, it’s hard for the crypto market to remain unaffected. Once liquidity expectations tighten, risk assets are often hit first, and the difficulty for Bitcoin to move out of an independent trend will become significantly greater.

In terms of trading, tonight is not suitable for impulsive moves; controlling the pace matters more than the direction.

If the data is bearish, first look at how price holds and absorbs around 700:
— If it breaks through and moves downward effectively, you can look toward the 680 area
— If support is effective, then consider participating in long positions at the lower levels

Key turning points are approaching—patience is more valuable than taking aggressive action.
$BTC $ETH #加密市场小幅下跌