#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Bitcoin plummeted over 40% from 125k, has the crypto winter really arrived in 2026?

Bitcoin crashed more than 40% from its high of 125k, and in 2026, it has fallen for four consecutive months, prompting Wall Street to call for a crypto winter. Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity or an exit? Should ordinary people panic? This round of sharp decline from the high was completely unexpected, coming quickly and fiercely, leaving no time for investors to react.
In early October 2025, it just touched the all-time high of $125k, seemingly poised to rise further, but suddenly reversed sharply, completely abandoning the upward trend and entering a prolonged sideways downward pattern.
What’s even more despairing is that it has already broken below two key support levels at $90k and $80k. In February 2026, it once plunged near $60k. Even with recent slight rebounds to around $69k, the decline from the high remains over 40%.
Countless investors’ “rebound” turned out to be a fleeting illusion—every attempt to break upward was brutally suppressed by massive sell orders, eroding bullish confidence bit by bit. The more it fell, the fewer dared to buy, and the fewer buyers, the more it fell.
The start of the new year was even more disastrous. On the night of January 1, 2026, Bitcoin suddenly plunged in a straight line, dropping from $89k to $87k within a few hours, triggering a global liquidation wave—nearly 164k contracts were liquidated, with over $120 million in liquidation in 24 hours.
By early February, the crash saw more than 400k liquidations in a single day, with $2.5 billion evaporating instantly. The entire crypto community was in chaos, once lively trading groups now silent and full of complaints.
Market warnings from institutions about panic are never baseless; more and more Wall Street giants are joining the bearish camp. Each warning signal pulls the “crypto winter” shadow closer.
The financial services giant Cantor’s team stated in a recent report that, influenced by Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and macroeconomic environment, the crypto market in 2026 is unlikely to see a rally, and it’s most likely to be the first down year since 2022.
Even more concerning, this decline from the high has already lasted over 180 days, while the average duration of past crypto winters exceeds 225 days. Based on the cycle, this current drop is just the beginning.
Once a firm Bitcoin bull, Standard Chartered Bank has made a 180-degree turn—cut its 2026 Bitcoin target price from $300k to $150k, effectively acknowledging a weak market pattern this year.
Ned Davis Research has issued an extreme forecast: if the winter fully erupts, Bitcoin could fall to $31k, a 55% drop from current levels, essentially wiping out investors’ principal multiple times.
The consensus among institutions is clear: the biggest problem in the current market is liquidity exhaustion.
Retail investors are panicking and exiting, institutional buyers are halting entry, and marginal buying is severely lacking. No one wants to buy the dip, and as a result, Bitcoin is likely to remain weak for the next few months. Breaking out of this cycle seems as difficult as climbing a mountain.
The most ironic and perplexing aspect of Bitcoin’s underperformance in this decline is that the macro environment should have been favorable for Bitcoin, yet it completely “refused to buy,” charting a decline independent of all other assets.
In the second half of 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in a row. According to traditional market logic, loose monetary policy would flood the market with liquidity, attracting funds into risk assets like Bitcoin and pushing prices higher.
But the reality was the opposite. Each rate cut was followed by Bitcoin’s further decline, diverging sharply from the trend of traditional risk assets, leaving everyone puzzled.
Compared to traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin’s performance was even more “disappointing.” During the same period, gold repeatedly hit new highs, staying above $2,300 per ounce, while silver and platinum also surged, with funds flowing into traditional safe-haven markets seeking security.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, once touted as a “new safe-haven asset,” has become a highly volatile speculative instrument. Its safe-haven attributes have completely failed—rather than becoming a “port in the storm,” it turned into a “hot potato” that investors dumped.
Market analysis suggests that one reason is the lack of market liquidity, coupled with uncertain rate cut prospects, leading to a significant decline in risk appetite.
Another reason is the frequent reports of institutional whales selling off Bitcoin holdings. Multiple negative factors combined have shattered Bitcoin’s “safe-haven myth” and caused investor confidence to collapse.
Every time the term “crypto winter” is mentioned, it leaves a deep impression on veteran crypto investors—since Bitcoin’s inception, the market has experienced four brutal bear markets, each accompanied by wealth evaporation, project closures, and confidence collapse. Now, a similar script seems to be replaying.
In 2011, Bitcoin faced its first winter, crashing from $30 to $2, a decline of over 93%, leaving many early investors wiped out.
In 2015, it fell from $1,124 to $197, a drop of over 82%, forcing many crypto projects to shut down.
In 2018, it plunged from $19k to $3,200, a decline of over 83%, leading to a large-scale reshuffle in the crypto space.
In 2022, it dropped from $69k to $17k, a decline of over 73%, with many crypto firms going bankrupt and leaving a mess behind.
Cantor’s team specifically warns that fear of winter itself accelerates market declines.
More and more investors are panicking and rushing to sell their crypto assets regardless of price, creating a vicious cycle of “selling more as prices fall, prices fall further as more are sold,” with confidence collapsing faster than prices.
For veteran crypto investors, the term “crypto winter” is etched into their bones—since Bitcoin’s birth, the market has gone through four severe bear markets, each marked by wealth loss, project failures, and confidence collapse. Now, a similar pattern seems to be repeating.
In 2011, Bitcoin first faced a winter, crashing from $30 to $2, a decline of over 93%, wiping out many early investors.
In 2015, it fell from $1124 to $197, down over 82%, forcing many projects to shut down.
In 2018, it dropped from $19,000 to $3,200, down over 83%, leading to a major reshuffle.
In 2022, it declined from $69,000 to $17,000, down over 73%, causing many crypto companies to go bankrupt and leaving a mess.
Cantor’s team emphasizes that fear of winter itself is a catalyst for accelerating declines.
Now, more investors are panicking, selling off crypto assets at any cost, regardless of the price, creating a vicious cycle of “selling as prices fall, prices fall as more are sold,” with confidence collapsing faster than prices.
For ordinary investors, the most unnecessary thing now is to worry about whether the “winter” has truly arrived. In the short term, Bitcoin’s weak pattern is unlikely to change, and prices still have room to fall. Blindly buying the dip or using leverage could lead to huge losses or even total wipeout.
The best course of action now is to rationally assess your risk tolerance, stay away from high-leverage contracts, control your positions, and even temporarily exit the market to observe—better than blindly following the trend into losses.
The crypto market in 2026 is destined to be a battle between confidence and risk; surviving is more important than anything else.