Flow of 10,000 yuan, netting 6,000 yuan? The current situation of the "Five Little Dragons" of new tea drinks: performance is like two different worlds, franchisees losing everything

Text | “BUG” Column Xu Yuanlei

Recently, the “Five Little Dragons” of new tea drinks, led by Mixue Bingcheng, Guming, Shanghai Auntie, Nayuki, and Tea Baidao, have each released their annual reports.

From the 2025 performance, the performance and stock prices of the five companies have shown dramatic divergence, with Guming’s net profit doubling and leading, Nayuki still stuck in losses, with cumulative losses exceeding 2 billion yuan since listing; Mixue Bingcheng is accelerating expansion against the trend, while Tea Baidao is actively “braking,” and Shanghai Auntie is caught in a high store closure rate, opening 3 and closing 1.

The “two extremes” in performance have made franchisees miserable. One tea franchisee admitted, “Revenue seems decent, but only 60% of it actually reaches us. Many new franchisees find it increasingly difficult to turn a profit, and in the end, they can only close stores or transfer ownership.”

Performance divergence: Guming leads in growth, Nayuki continues to lose money

In 2025, the new tea beverage industry experienced a wave of IPOs, with Mixue Bingcheng, Guming, Shanghai Auntie, and others knocking on the capital market’s door. So far, five new tea companies have gone public in Hong Kong, namely Mixue Bingcheng, Guming, Tea Baidao, Shanghai Auntie, and Nayuki.

However, based on the full-year financial reports of 2025, the industry’s performance divergence has become increasingly evident.

Mixue Bingcheng, with its extreme cost-performance ratio and extensive store network, achieved both revenue and profit growth. Its full-year revenue in 2025 reached 33.56 billion yuan, up 35.2%, with a net profit of 5.93 billion yuan, up 33.1%, equivalent to an average daily net profit of about 16.25 million yuan.

Guming and Shanghai Auntie also achieved strong growth. Guming’s 2025 financial report shows full-year revenue of 12.91 billion yuan, up 46.9%, and net profit of 3.12 billion yuan, up 108.6%, leading the industry in profit growth. Shanghai Auntie’s 2025 report shows revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, up 36%, and net profit of 500 million yuan, up 52.4%.

Tea Baidao and Nayuki face varying degrees of performance pressure. Tea Baidao’s 2025 report shows revenue of 5.4 billion yuan, up 9.7%, and net profit of 820 million yuan, up 71.2%. Although still growing, revenue growth has slowed.

Nayuki remains in the loss cycle. Its 2025 report shows revenue of 4.33 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and a net loss of 239 million yuan, although this narrowed sharply by 74% compared to 2024, it still has not turned profitable.

Overall, Mixue Bingcheng, Guming, and Shanghai Auntie still maintain over 30% high growth in revenue, demonstrating certain resilience; Tea Baidao’s revenue growth momentum has weakened; Nayuki’s revenue has declined for two consecutive years, with scale shrinking continuously. The industry has shifted from rapid growth in the past to a stage of structural differentiation where the strong get stronger and the weak shrink.

The performance divergence is directly reflected in the attitude of the capital market. As of the close on March 31, 2026, the stock prices of each listed new tea company showed clear divergence compared to their issuance prices. Mixue Bingcheng closed at HKD 293, up 44.7% from the issuance price of HKD 202.5, with a market value of HKD 111.23B; Guming closed at HKD 27.3, up 174.7% from HKD 9.94, with a market value of about HKD 64.92B.

Meanwhile, Shanghai Auntie, Tea Baidao, and Nayuki all experienced deep declines, with poor market performance. Shanghai Auntie closed at HKD 74, down 34.6% from the HKD 113.12 issuance price, with a market value of HKD 7.78B; Tea Baidao closed at HKD 5.67, down 67.6% from HKD 17.5, with a market value of HKD 8.38B; Nayuki’s stock price was HKD 0.83, down 95.8% from HKD 19.8, with a market value of only HKD 1.42B, making it the most fallen among newly listed tea brands.

“Many newly opened stores are increasingly difficult to turn a profit”

Behind the IPO wave is the new tea industry’s deep entrapment in “scale involution” operational dilemmas. Over the past few years, major brands’ expansion strategies centered on opening stores have exposed more and more problems amid slowing industry growth and rationalized consumer demand.

Due to fierce price wars and rapid expansion of store networks diluting customer flow and sales per store, store efficiency continues to decline, franchisee earnings decrease, and store closures rise, becoming the industry’s most prominent dilemma.

For example, Shanghai Auntie’s prospectus shows that in 2024, the average daily GMV per store decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, same-store GMV fell by 10.6%, and annual revenue per store decreased by nearly 200k yuan. While stores expanded rapidly, customer flow was severely diluted.

A tea franchisee told “BUG” that: “Now the take-home rate is very low. In 2024, our store’s daily revenue was about 10k yuan, with actual receipts of 8,000 yuan. Now, we only get about 6,000 yuan, mainly because takeaway orders have increased, and platform commissions and subsidies have also risen.”

The franchisee also said: “Location is very important, but even good locations can be crowded out within half a year, extending the payback period. Competition is fierce—some counties or small towns have three or four stores of the same brand.” They also revealed that fruit spoilage rates are high, and with rent and labor costs, many newly opened stores find it increasingly hard to turn a profit, ultimately leading to closures or transfers.

Faced with operational difficulties, major leading brands have shown clear divergence in their expansion attitudes.

Mixue Bingcheng and Guming chose to accelerate expansion against the trend. Mixue Bingcheng added 8,914 stores in 2024, and plans to add about 13k in 2025, with a total approaching 60k stores worldwide. Relying on extreme cost-performance and strong supply chain advantages, they continue to expand during the industry downturn; Guming, in 2025, reversed its previous cautious stance, adding about 3,640 stores—nearly tripling the 913 stores added in 2024—using the funds from going public to restart rapid expansion.

In 2025, Shanghai Auntie opened 3,654 new franchise stores and closed 1,383, netting about 2,273, roughly the same as last year, but with a high closure rate of 12%, meaning one in three new stores closed; Tea Baidao’s net increase was only 226 stores, with expansion nearly stagnating; Nayuki was the only brand among the five to see a net decrease in total stores, closing over 150 underperforming directly operated stores, with franchise stores growing slightly by 13 to 358.

(2025 Shanghai Auntie franchise store count)

(2025 Nayuki directly operated store count)

This round of proactive adjustments has begun to show preliminary results in financial reports. In 2025, Guming’s average daily GMV per store rebounded from 6,500 yuan to 7,800 yuan, with same-store GMV turning positive; Nayuki’s directly operated stores saw average daily sales rise from 7,300 yuan to 7,700 yuan, and daily order volume increased from 270.5 to 313.0, with significant improvement in operational quality.

Overseas is the only growth path?

Guming CFO Meng Hailing mentioned at last August’s earnings call that the goal of 20k stores is likely to be achieved by 2027, but expansion depends on “ensuring the continued health of existing stores.”

In December last year, Shanghai Auntie founder Dan Weijun also publicly stated, “Continuous optimization of the single-store model is the core support for expansion. Currently, Shanghai Auntie controls the investment threshold per store at around 200k–300k yuan, which is almost the lowest among leading brands’ franchise fees, ensuring a stable return in about 12-15 months. The relatively quick payback period enhances franchisee loyalty.”

Discussing the second half of the new tea industry’s competition, Jiang Han, senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, believes the industry may “roll” into several aspects: first, product innovation—brands need to continuously develop new products that meet consumer tastes; second, supply chain optimization and management to reduce costs and improve efficiency; third, brand differentiation through unique image and positioning to attract consumers; fourth, channel expansion and deepening penetration into lower-tier markets to increase market share.

“Major brands need to constantly optimize product mix and control costs by developing high-value-added new products, improving production efficiency, and reducing raw material costs to increase gross margins. Additionally, diversifying revenue streams is key to maintaining profit growth. Brands can consider expanding delivery services, peripheral product sales, brand collaborations, and other methods to increase income,” Jiang Han said.

From the dynamics of various new tea brands since 2026, despite different strategic focuses, a common development trend is evident.

On one hand, facing intensified domestic market involution, leading brands are turning their eyes overseas, with going abroad becoming an important path to break growth bottlenecks and find a second growth curve. Compared to domestic market saturation, overseas markets—especially Europe, America, and Southeast Asia—still have vast tea consumption potential, becoming new growth frontiers for top brands.

Mixue Bingcheng entered the US markets of New York and Los Angeles in December 2025, and plans to open its first store in Brazil in 2026, now operating in 14 countries worldwide; Guming, Shanghai Auntie, and Nayuki are accelerating their Southeast Asia layouts, leveraging supply chain advantages to operate overseas stores at low cost and seize the blank tea market.

On the other hand, to escape low-price involution and improve store profitability, leading brands are actively upgrading store scenes and pursuing differentiated layouts. For example, Heytea focuses on the high-end market, recently launching HEYTEALAB 2.0 flagship store in Shanghai, integrating four laboratory sections to create an immersive “tea + experience + social” scene, strengthening brand differentiation through scene innovation.

Mixue Bingcheng, rooted in the mass market, launched Snow King Castle stores, incorporating brand IP elements to enhance store recognition, and is also developing the Snow King Paradise project, expanding the “retail + cultural tourism” value chain, using IP to enable scene diversification and break free from price competition.

Behind these trends is the industry’s collective shift from scale expansion to value deepening. The era of land-grabbing and rapid store opening is over; future competition will focus on product innovation, supply chain efficiency, differentiated experiences, and global deployment. Only brands that balance franchisee interests with consumer needs and proactively optimize resource allocation can stand firm amid industry reshuffle.