The Iranians have closed the Strait again. This world is really a damn circus.

U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Yeah, you read that right. In the early hours of April 8, 2026, Trump shook hands and made peace with Iran. A two-week ceasefire agreement, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, oil prices plummeted 20 overnight, and Bitcoin shot from $68,000 straight up to $72,841 like a rocket.

I shouted in the group chat: "Bull run, back to safety!"

The group exploded. Some wanted to add to their positions, some wanted to go long, some already had their mortgage down payments on the line.

I was excited too.

Because before that, everyone thought World War III was imminent. Iran closing the Strait, oil prices soaring, Bitcoin dropping into the $66,000 range, and all you saw were stories like "Digital Gold Fails," "Safe-Haven Assets Collapse."

Then, suddenly, a ceasefire.

The market instantly FOMOed.

How did I feel at that moment? Awesome. Like finally unclogging after three days of constipation.

I immediately added to my position. Went all in. Pushed every last U into the market.

And then—

This morning, early April 9, 2026, I threw up in the bathroom.

Not from drinking, but from the barbecue I had last night, and a little of my precious capital.

Because the Iranian Revolutionary Guard just announced: The Strait, again, is closed.

Both sides are celebrating their "victory."

Trump said, "We won. We forced Iran to open the Strait."

Iran said, "We won. We didn't let the US destroy our civilization."

Israel said, "We also won. We continue bombing Hezbollah in Lebanon."

Then, after Israel bombed Lebanon, killing at least 182 civilians, Iran immediately said, "Ceasefire is violated, the Strait remains closed."

The White House was stunned.

The Pentagon said, "We are ready to resume operations at any time."

Trump said, "If they violate again, our strikes will be 'bigger, better, stronger.'"

Bigger. Better. Stronger.

Listen to this—are we fighting or advertising?

Is this not a circus?

Do you know what Bitcoin is doing right now?

Still hovering around $71,000.

The Strait is closed, ships are stuck, hundreds of oil tankers are stranded there, yet Bitcoin hasn't dropped.

Why?

Because the market thinks, "They probably won't really fight."

That's the most terrifying part.

Everyone's betting. Betting Iran is just bluffing, betting Israel won't escalate, betting Trump's "bigger, better, stronger" is just Twitter noise.

But what if?

What if they really go to war someday? Where can Bitcoin go?

Some say Bitcoin is digital gold, a safe haven.

Bullshit.

Look at this round. When geopolitical crises escalate, Bitcoin drops first. Safe haven? What kind of safe? Funds all rush into dollars and US Treasuries. Bitcoin is just a high-risk asset—don’t put gold on its face.

This rebound isn’t because Bitcoin is strong; it’s because oil prices fell, rate cut expectations returned, and funds came back to gamble.

It rises because there’s no war. Not because it can fight.

If you don’t even understand this, then losing money isn’t your fault.

The market isn’t afraid of war; it’s afraid of you thinking you can predict war.

Every time you think, "This time is different," it’s always the same old story.

Bitcoin hitting $72,000 isn’t because it’s awesome; it’s because the world isn’t collapsing—yet. Whether the world collapses or not doesn’t depend on you, but on whether a few old men in military uniforms are in a good mood today.

What’s next? Speak plainly.

First, don’t chase the high.

The Strait is closed now, negotiations are set for April 11. Three days from now. During these three days, will Israel bomb Lebanon again? Will Iran make more tough talk? Will Trump tweet in the middle of the night?

No one knows.

But what I do know is, anyone rushing in now is probably just setting up for others to take the fall in three days.

Second, watch the oil price.

This Bitcoin rebound is basically a correction caused by oil prices crashing. If oil prices spike again, Bitcoin will be the first to kneel. Don’t believe in any "decoupling"—these two are still tightly linked.

Third, don’t over-leverage.

I already paid my tuition last night. Don’t make me pay again.

In this kind of market, it’s not your time to make money; it’s your time to watch the show.

Better to miss out than to get caught.

I just finished my last cigarette and looked at the K-line.

Bitcoin is still at $71,000.

Iran says unless Israel stops bombing Lebanon, there will be no negotiations.

Israel says, keep fighting.

The White House says, the Strait must open.

The Pentagon says, we’re ready.

Everyone is talking.

But no one knows what will happen tomorrow.

That’s the life of a crypto trader.

You stare at the K-line, thinking you’re battling the market. Actually, you’re battling leaders of several countries, a few old men in uniform, and Trump’s late-night tweets.

The U’s in your hand aren’t worth more than some missiles.

So, control your position, hold your hands, and stay alive.

See you on April 11.
If negotiations collapse that day, we’ll meet on the rooftop. Remember to bring cigarettes.