U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Chinese Central Bank Continues Gold Purchases, Gold Returns to $4,800 per Ounce!

— Gold Stock ETF (517400) / Mining ETF (561330) / Gold ETF (518800) Big Rally: Commentary 0408

On Wednesday, the news of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. was confirmed, and it was also agreed to begin negotiations on April 10. Market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and international gold prices strongly surged back above the $4,800 per ounce level. Gold Stock ETF (517400), Mining ETF (561330), and Gold ETF (518800) all rose sharply in tandem.

The core drivers behind the collective strength in the gold sector this time:

1 Geopolitical easing + liquidity repair. The Middle East conflict cooled in the short term. Expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz were restored. Passive selling caused by earlier liquidity shocks came to a halt. Gold returned from a “liquidation asset” to the main theme of hedging and protection against inflation.

2 Rate-cut expectations rise. U.S. federal funds futures today generally moved higher. The December contract rose by 14 basis points. Market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year warmed further.

3 Structural support from central bank gold purchases. The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 17 consecutive months. Globally, central banks still net bought gold in March. The Eurozone is the main force for gold purchases, with incremental demand far exceeding the reduction in holdings by certain countries such as Turkey. Sovereign buying provides a solid bottom for gold prices.

In the short term, the market is still watching developments in the Iran-U.S. negotiations, and gold price volatility remains high. However, the extreme volatility driven by sentiment and liquidity has clearly narrowed. The logic for gold’s medium- to long-term allocation is further strengthened: the de-dollarization trend continues, central banks worldwide keep buying gold, and gold’s value as the core tool for hedging currency depreciation and credit risk remains unchanged.

Related products:

·#Gold ETF (518800): Closely tracks gold prices

·#Gold Stock ETF (517400): May have higher earnings amplification attributes

·#Mining ETF (561330): Focuses on upstream assets—there’s gold at home

(Risk warning: Current gold price volatility remains high, and there is still the risk of pullbacks at certain stages. Short-term gains and losses in indices are for reference only and do not represent future performance. They do not constitute any commitment or guarantee regarding fund performance. Views may change with market conditions and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. The risk and return characteristics of fund products differ from each other. Investors are advised to carefully read the fund’s legal documents, fully understand product elements, risk levels, and the principles of profit distribution, choose products that match their own risk tolerance, and invest cautiously.)

Daily Economic News

(Editor: Zhang Xiaobo)

     【Disclaimer】This article only represents the author’s personal views and is not related to Hexun. The Hexun website maintains a neutral stance toward the statements and judgments made in the text, and provides no explicit or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content. Readers are requested to use this information only for reference and bear all responsibility themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com

Report