The current Middle East situation is fragile and volatile: the ceasefire agreement was broken on the first day, Iran refused to negotiate and re-sealed the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, oil prices are rebounding under pressure. - Key variables: whether a negotiation framework can be reached, the passage rules for the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Israeli military actions will continue.


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Crude oil trading triggers
April 9–10
Iran announces cancellation of negotiations / refusal to open the strait → WTI breaks 99 → surges to 104
Iran resumes negotiations + opens the strait → falls back to the 90–94 range
​ April 10, negotiation day
​Iran absent → direct bullish signal, long positions held, no additional shorts
​If negotiations proceed as scheduled → oscillate and retreat, reduce long positions
#WTI原油 #XTI #XBR
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