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Ceasefire = Bottom-fishing signal? Be careful, this is the "most loved" moment for institutions to "induce more buying"!
The biggest danger in the market is not the decline itself, but the appearance of safety.
Donald Trump's ceasefire statement instantly shifted market sentiment from panic to optimism. But the question is: when has a real geopolitical conflict ever been resolved solely through a "schedule"?
Is the war truly over? The probability is very low; it's just a cooling-off phase.
The Strait of Hormuz? It will open, but it won't be completely safe.
What does this mean? The market is entering a phase of "high volatility + high expectation gap."
Allocation logic:
* Crude oil: Falling releases risk, but don't blindly bottom-fish
* BTC: Strong trend, but watch out for "false breakouts"
* Gold: The real "slow bull candidate"
Recommended strategy: Gradually build positions, keep enough cash on hand, and avoid being driven by emotions.
#特朗普同意停火两周