"TACO" repeatedly disturbed! A chart reviewing six weeks of oil market turmoil

Amid a tense, heartrending moment as President Trump of the United States issued threats of “the downfall of civilization” and more than 14 million Iranians were willing to sacrifice their lives for their country, the U.S. “suddenly” agreed to a two-week ceasefire.

Beijing, April 8 (Xinhua) — Late on the evening of April 7, U.S. Eastern Time, President Trump posted on social media saying: “I agree to pause the bombing and attack operations against Iran for two weeks.”

CCTV News, citing a statement issued in the early hours of April 8 local time by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that, on the advice of the Supreme Leader and with approval from the Supreme National Security Council, it accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan.

On April 8, after the news was released, international oil prices opened lower and then declined further. WTI benchmark front-month futures at one point plunged nearly 20% during the day, falling to a low of $91.05 per barrel. As of 17:00 Beijing time that day, WTI benchmark front-month futures were at $95.30 per barrel, down 15.62%.

Over the nearly six weeks since the outbreak of war at the end of February, Trump’s TACO strategy has become one of the core factors driving turmoil in the international crude oil market. This operating model, defined by Wall Street as “Trump Always Chickens Out” (Trump always backs down at the last minute), repeatedly plays out a cycle of “maximum pressure—sudden retreat,” continually staging showdowns in the U.S.-Iran standoff and leaving global markets in sustained turbulence.

Insiders noted that Trump’s “TACO” is not random behavior, but rather a consistent logic of conduct throughout this round of the U.S.-Iran conflict. Especially at several key junctures from late March to early April, the strategy’s performance was even more vividly on display.

On March 21 local time, Trump had issued a “48-hour ultimatum” to Iran, claiming it would bomb its energy facilities if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz. Once the news broke, it immediately triggered panic across global capital markets, but just 15 minutes before the ultimatum deadline, he suddenly posted that the military strikes would be delayed by 5 days. On March 26, he again pushed the strike date back by another 10 days, setting the final deadline for April 6.

Entering April, Trump’s TACO playbook was upgraded again. On April 4 local time, he once more issued a “48-hour ultimatum,” demanding Iran’s surrender. On April 6, he voluntarily extended the deadline. On April 7, he even issued an apocalyptic warning that if no agreement was reached within 12 hours, “civilization would be destroyed.” Yet with only 88 minutes left before the deadline he had set, he suddenly announced acceptance of Pakistan’s mediation proposal, agreeing to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. From extreme threats to abrupt concessions—within just three days, he changed his stance multiple times, and international oil prices responded with a massive shock.

（Source: Eastmoney Research Center）