A rational view of the "vegetables are more expensive than meat" phenomenon

Vegetable prices are cheaper than meat prices—this is something many people in China have grown used to. The thing to pay attention to isn’t whether vegetables are more expensive than meat or meat is more expensive than vegetables; the focus is whether quantities are sufficient, quality is safe, prices are reasonable, and circulation is smooth.

Recently, pork prices have been especially friendly to consumers. According to data, in the fourth week of March, the nationwide hog price was 10.68 yuan per kilogram, down 29.8% year over year, hitting the lowest level in recent years. Pork prices were 21.52 yuan per kilogram, down 17.8% year over year. Some varieties of vegetables cost more than ordinary pork, and people summarize it as “vegetables are more expensive than meat.”

Vegetable prices are cheaper than meat prices—this is something many people in China have grown used to. In fact, in many developed countries, vegetables are generally more expensive than pork. In recent years, in China too, some vegetables in certain time periods have been priced higher than meat, and some high-end varieties have long been more expensive than meat. “Vegetables are more expensive than meat” is just a vivid way of putting it; it’s not a strict concept in statistics, nor is it true that every vegetable price is higher than pork’s. On the contrary, whether in wholesale or retail, the current nationwide average vegetable price is far lower than the pork price. Of course, there are indeed cases where some eggplant and other solanaceous vegetables, as well as ginger and garlic, are sold at prices higher than ordinary pork—but those are still in the minority.

“Vegetables are more expensive than meat” is the result of cyclical fluctuations in hog prices and seasonal, variety-based fluctuations in vegetable prices. Although this is a structural phenomenon, it is by no means rare. Back in October 2021, there was also a “vegetables are more expensive than meat” phenomenon. The reason at the time was that the main producing areas were hit by torrential rain and flooding, which affected vegetable growth and supply, while the hog price’s cyclical decline coincided with a temporary disruption in vegetable supply. A key feature of vegetables is that they have a short production cycle and that production capacity can change quickly. Price increases can motivate vegetable growers to expand production and adjust their structures; correspondingly, vegetable supply for relevant categories can rise quickly, and prices will then trend downward as well.

Unlike bulk agricultural products such as grains, fresh produce like vegetables is highly market-oriented, with prices that go up and down, and relatively frequent fluctuations—and it is precisely through these ups and downs that the industry keeps developing. Benefiting from the “vegetable basket” project, China has ample assurance of vegetable supply. Both total output and per-capita holding rank first in the world, and far ahead of others. Compared with other countries, Chinese people can eat a greater variety of vegetables at very low prices. Currently, the market has sufficient vegetable supply with abundant varieties; there is no shortage or gap in supply, so consumers don’t need to worry. In fact, in the fourth week of March, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitored 28 types of vegetables, with the nationwide average wholesale price at 4.82 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% month over month and up 0.4% year over year.

“Vegetables are more expensive than meat”—in other words, “meat is cheaper than vegetables.” The focus is mainly that pork prices are relatively low. The reason is that supply is sufficient while demand is in a slack season. On the supply side, the number of sows capable of reproduction and the number of hogs ready for market are core indicators in hog production; they represent future capacity and current supply, respectively. They are like a train with huge inertia: capacity adjustments and exits take a long time, and both are still at relatively high levels. At the same time, as breeding efficiency has increased significantly, the average market weight of hogs is higher than in the previous years. On the demand side, after the holidays, pork consumption quickly enters a slack period. From the perspective of the hog cycle, the trend of hog prices bottoming out has been continuing for some time, and the duration of this cycle at low levels has been somewhat extended.

There is a situation worth noting. With hog prices continuing to fall and feed prices rising somewhat, the breeding end is facing double pressure. Since October 2025, the entire industry has been operating at a loss. For breeding farms and households, the lower the market gets, the more they should build their internal strengths. Firmly eliminate backward sows that produce few piglets and have low returns, and actively bring inflated capacity down to a reasonable range. They should view the market rationally and time their pig-out according to circumstances. They can also explore differentiated paths—for example, developing specialty breeding: in terms of breed, develop local “tu” pigs; in terms of feeding, develop pork from flaxseed-fed pigs; build specialty brands, connect with segmented markets, and avoid homogenous competition.

In the long run, the price comparison relationships among agricultural products are influenced by many factors, such as technological progress in each product, cost changes, and consumption trends. Natural disasters and supply-chain conditions are also disruptive factors. The thing to pay attention to isn’t whether vegetables are more expensive than meat or meat is more expensive than vegetables; the focus is whether quantities are sufficient, quality is safe, prices are reasonable, and circulation is smooth. Local governments should implement the mayor’s responsibility system for the “vegetable basket,” and continue to work solidly on stabilizing production and ensuring supply of “vegetable basket” products. This means considering residents’ demand—achieving supply that can be “delivered in” and “kept available,” without gaps in supply—while also focusing on increasing farmers’ income, promoting high-quality development of agriculture, and achieving “stock vegetables in fields” and “stock meat in pens.”