[Red Envelope] Has the reversal arrived?

How to judge whether today’s big rally is real? Trading volume and price both rise—4,878 stocks advance, 122 reach limit-up, and 4 decline to limit-down. Will it be able to keep going tomorrow? Last night, the U.S. stocks pulled back into the close. Today, A-shares opened with a huge volume and a very high gap-up. First, looking at the open-auction volume data—up 147%—you can tell that no matter how the market performs after this, it will still be in a state of substantial volume expansion. Today is relatively safer. We know that if it only releases a little, a high opening followed by a low move is also possible.** The big question everyone cares about is: can it keep adding incremental gains afterward?** Let’s analyze the data from the past few trading days. Before today’s surge in volume, the market’s volume had already shrunk to a new low since August 5 last year. So the incremental move today has relatively high difficulty in being sustained. Once the market enters a stage of continuous dullness for several days, it’s not easy to keep strengthening after that day’s single-day blowout in volume. [Tao股吧]

Then, if the volume keeps shrinking afterward, what effect will it have going forward? Is it good for continuing to push out bullish candles upward? A pullback isn’t always a bad thing. A contraction in volume isn’t always a reason you can’t trade. Keep rotating—choppy consolidation. The next two trading days in this week will have lower tradability. For now, with heavy volume and a big bullish candle filling the market’s gap, our expectations have improved, but we all know that the market will tend toward a low-volume trend afterward. So even if it tries to surge up tomorrow, it’s also easy to fall back. That means tradability will be lower the next two days and rotation will increase. ** Do we need to do some “risk-hedging” in certain sectors afterward? Let’s analyze the next rhythm.** First, do we see today’s rebound causing a clear boost in sentiment?** The gap before the jump-up was filled as the行情 improved. Today’s sentiment is noticeably stronger than the index. Sentiment leads the行情. For us, even if there’s a pullback, there is still some tradability. Today the performance of the all-A index is strong—strong because the first four attempts to fill the gap failed. On the fifth try, it broke down below to the downside. Yesterday it pulled back a little, and today it gapped up, filling the left-side gap in the form of a gap. That’s the point where it’s strong. The last time it was this strong was in fiber optics—it also filled the left-side downside gap in the form of a gap, and then a wave of one-direction action followed. That’s one of the strongest “gap-filling” patterns. For index sentiment, it also went through a similar phase of gap-filling the gap. Even though the index’s shrinking volume over the next two days is unfavorable for rising, sentiment’s performance is actually very strong. So regardless of whether the index’s gap fill truly holds, at least sentiment has confirmed that the breakout is effective. In this situation, even if there’s later disagreement in the market, as long as it can get close to the upper edge of the gap, the support here is actually strong—this is a key “game” node. ** If tomorrow it rallies and the high-to-low pullback is only slightly, then we can wait. If the pullback is larger, then there will also be an intraday reversal expectation—intraday is safer.**

**Auction Judgment: **
Baihua Pharma 1.59 billion RMB; controlling shareholder change—no impact on the market.
Changyuan Donggu 27B RMB; merger and restructuring—no impact on the market.
Hanggang Shares 8B RMB; DeepSeeK news.
MennuoPharm 889 million RMB; weight-loss drugs.
Dongshan Precision 759 million RMB; optical chips.
Mingpu Opto 733 million RMB; optical modules.
Western Gold 567 million RMB; gold.
Huichuan Communications 446 million RMB; communications optical fiber (slightly below expectations—avoid the optical fiber direction).
TianXin Pharmaceutical 312 million RMB; pharmaceuticals.
Sinogearn International 169 million RMB; post-war reconstruction.
Yesterday’s auction volume was 13.4 billion; today it’s 33.9 billion. The index gapped up 1 point. Although the auction didn’t show a clear focus and didn’t give a direction, the enthusiasm to go long is very high. The market used real money to top out that big high opening—there is a certain level of sincerity. Meanwhile, off-market funds did not get a comfortable opportunity. Tianshi Pharmaceutical likely got many funds pulled in today. A lot of funds are watching for a weak-to-strong turnaround. But the underlying logic has actually changed. As the market warms up and broad market strength rises, there’s no need to crowd into one basket. So if Tianshi Pharmaceutical can’t hold the limit-up, that becomes a “take-profit/exit” opportunity. Today there was no focus on it.

**Market Analysis: **
1. Macro trend: ** On Wednesday, 4,878 stocks rose and 292 fell; 122 hit limit-up and 4 hit limit-down. There was a big pullback of 3. Overall strength was 88. Based on the order-book data above and combined with the Zhuque Road expectation framework, ** the market is currently in a consolidation phase. Today’s market saw a reversal, and the index has broken through the pressure level effectively.
**2. Near-term: ** If tomorrow it rallies to the highs without adding incremental volume, it will likely surge high and then fall back. Wait for the index to pull back and test the gap-support area, and think about the next entry point—divergence is expected tomorrow.
**3. Sentiment analysis: ** Today’s sentiment is still very strong. It broke through the gap-up pressure level in the form of a gap. Afterward, you can expect an upward wave. Tianshi Pharmaceutical’s auction volume blew up today, and since there’s no need to crowd into it, it ended up printing a big bearish candle with a failed board.

**Hot Sectors Analysis: **
Computing power: liquid cooling—Leyou Shares
Data centers: Liande Shares
Computing power leasing: OYREAD, Lianhua Holding
Communications: printed circuit boards—Chaoying Electronics
Optical modules: Kerrui Technology
CPO: Cambridge Technology
Optical fiber concept: Huichuan Communications
Semiconductors: memory—Dawei Shares, ShanHao (ShanHao) Semiconductor
Semiconductor equipment: Kerrui Technology
Advanced packaging: Guoxing Optoelectronics
AI applications: AI video—Bluefocus Media, Decai Shares
AI marketing: Leyou Shares
OpenClaw: Lianhua Holding
Artificial intelligence: DeepSeek—Hanggang Shares
Alibaba-style AI: DataPort
Zhipu AI: Guangdian Media
Tencent AI: Litong Electronics
Commercial space: ShenJian Shares, Feiwo Technology
Gas turbines: Changbao Shares
Robotics: Lianxiang Shares
Gold: Western Gold
Securities: First Venture Capital
Non-ferrous metals: Xingye Tin & Zinc
Smart grids: Changbao Shares

Hot Take: ** During consolidation, the fiber optics direction had the highest gain. In today’s auction, seeing Huichuan Communications’ buy limit orders not strengthening means fiber optics is lagging. Funds have expectations of rotating from high to low. Computing power also has logic and is currently at a relatively low “position,” so today funds rotated into computing power. Computing power is resonating with the index. ** Going forward, when the market pulls back, should we hedge with pharma, or should we do computing power that resonates with the market? Today the market’s focus has changed. With the market’s upside expectations, when the market pulls back, we should do computing power core that resonates with the market—not hedging pharma. Today’s “middle leader” in computing power is Industrial 富联 (Foxconn-related). If you didn’t go to the front line, then in terms of thinking you should have looked at the middle leader.
Computing Power Sector Logic: ** Under the dual drivers of explosive demand and supply restructuring, computing power will enter a new, stronger cycle. Last week the U.S. used bills to strengthen restrictions to interfere with us, but purely from our own industry logic, it has also entered a stage of large-scale expansion.
Power Sector Logic: ** The power sector’s走势 expectations have completely reversed. The current goal of “stabilizing” in power is because the previous breakout of the 8-limit consecutive board Huadian Liaoning Energy triggered sentiment for consecutive boards, and there are also expectations of regulation on the 10th this Friday. For the high-end power stocks, you can still play the game, but right now it’s only suitable to understand it as a dead-cat bounce. After all, the first one already went into a downturn (the tide is fading). Even if regulation is released, there won’t be very strong expectations, and there’s also a high possibility that on the last day before regulation, funds may cash out.
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Summary: ** Today incremental funds entering into tech results in a broad-based up move. The difficulty of having expectations for continued incremental gains tomorrow is relatively high. Computing power has the highest strength. There’s no expectation gap in the front ranks—only the “one-word board” or big high-opening is expected. At this time, we still can’t see an expectation for a行情 reversal. So it’s still better to be cautious about chasing highs. The next entry point should be after the all-A index on the platform like 同花顺 (i.e., the TSX all-A index) pulls back to test support, and then keep watching the computing power core. Hitting the rhythm is crucial. Don’t have the feeling of missing out. If you see today’s big rally and you end up missing it, then you should reflect: when you see signals of incremental volume, how should you make up for it and think about entry.
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Finally, I’ll leave everyone a question: which stock in the entire market do you like the most? Welcome all heroes to share your insights. I’ll take part in the discussion—we’ll exchange and explore together.

Thanks to实力选手 @匡敦清 @启程192 @哈哈哈507 @四叶草纸 @翔伟 @我是媛媛爸爸 @F炒股小白 @宇境臻 @瓜洲渡 @公交不载人 @第八支箭 @凡凡凡啊 @自在金 @梦控师光年 @米开朗基瑞 @瓢城朱哥 @hzsunky @自在金 for supporting Zhuque Road with points. Thanks to @GD晴天 @匡敦清 @猴哥66 @巨好运 for contributing “boost coins” to Zhuque Road. I truly wish all brothers supporting Zhuque Road: limit-ups keep coming nonstop! The stock market stays red! Congratulations and best wishes for prosperity!

Investing involves risk; enter the market cautiously. This article is for reference only.