Preview: The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes will be released tonight. Amidst the turmoil of the US-Iran conflict, market expectations regarding interest rate direction will be the focus.

BlockBeats message: On Thursday, April 8, at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the March meeting minutes. Notably, the March policy meeting was held amid a backdrop of continuously accumulating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The minutes will reveal how officials weighed these risks before the situation escalated in its latest round, and how much relevance the thinking at the time still has today.

Since the Iran war began on February 28, borrowing costs have risen steadily, and the market has also been under tremendous pressure; this means that even without the Federal Reserve taking any policy action, the broader financial conditions have effectively tightened already.

The interest-rate path that the market expects will also be a key focus. When they met in March, the market still expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates once later this year. While this view has not completely disappeared yet, it is becoming increasingly uncertain. Higher oil prices and a tighter financial environment have made it harder and harder for the Federal Reserve to find an excuse to ease. The meeting may also have discussed which factors could pressure officials to consider restarting rate hikes—this would definitely whet investors’ appetites. (Jin10)