Financial data kicks off the year with a bang! Money has increased, where is the nearly 5 trillion yuan in loans flowing to?

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Guo Is Express Line

In 2026, China’s financial data growth exceeded expectations. Broad money (M2) supply and the scale of social financing grew relatively quickly, and renminbi loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan.

The People’s Bank of China released data on the 13th. As of end-January 2026, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 347.19 trillion yuan, up 9.0% year over year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and up 2.0 percentage points from the same period last year.

The stock of social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year over year, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Outstanding renminbi loans totaled 276.62 trillion yuan, up 6.1% year over year. Among the services sector excluding the real estate industry, the balance of medium- and long-term loans was 60.03 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year over year.

Policies continue to work harder—more money is on the way

Experts said that at the start of 2026, macro policies will be even more proactive and effective. On the one hand, a moderately loose monetary policy continues to step up efforts. Structural policy tool interest rates were lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and banks are incentivized and guided to increase credit lending to key areas through market-based mechanisms.

On the other hand, the tone of fiscal policy is even more proactive. In January, government bond financing reached 976.4 billion yuan, which was 283.1 billion yuan more than in the same period last year. The issuance sizes of government bonds, local government general bonds, and special bonds all increased noticeably. In January, the incremental share of government bond financing in total social financing reached 13.5%, the highest level for the same period since 2021.

Beyond government bonds, direct financing channels such as corporate bonds and equity financing are also accelerating. With the economy’s new and old growth drivers speeding up their transition, high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries are rising rapidly, and they need diversified financing channels—including equity and bond financing—to provide full-lifecycle funding support.

Major projects roll out in clusters—money flows smoothly

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the 2026 first-batch “two major initiatives” (Two Things) construction project list and central budgetary investment, with a total scale of about 295.0 billion yuan. All localities are actively pushing major projects to start earlier and be built sooner, to quickly form physical work output, providing effective project carriers for stimulating investment momentum and promoting credit issuance, as well as a foundation for funds docking.

The Guo Is Express Line learned from the People’s Bank of China that multiple banks reported that this year’s first quarter saw a noticeably faster approval pace for infrastructure-related loans, and the lending volume achieved a relatively large year-on-year increase.

Corporate lending gathers momentum and improves in quality—“hot money” moves to new tracks

Data show that in January, loans to (or for) enterprises and institutions increased by 4.45 trillion yuan, providing strong medium- and long-term funding support for key areas such as manufacturing and emerging industries.

The growth rates of technology loans, inclusive small and micro loans, and medium- and long-term loans to manufacturing have continued to be higher than the growth rate of total loans. The share of loans under the “Five Major Articles” of finance has risen significantly, and the trend of concentrating credit resources toward high-quality development areas has become even more distinct.

Industry experts believe that the change in where credit resources flow—from traditional areas to emerging tracks—is not only a natural result of the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, but also the core reflection of improving the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy.

Personal loan growth releases consumption demand

In January, loans to households increased by 456.5 billion yuan. Of this, short-term loans increased by 109.7 billion yuan, and medium- and long-term loans increased by 346.9 billion yuan.

As the Spring Festival approaches, diversified consumption demand—such as buying New Year’s goods, upgrading home renovations, and traveling for culture and tourism—has been concentratedly released, and the boosting effect of personal loan growth on growth in demand has become especially evident.

Recently, the Ministry of Finance and two other departments optimized and implemented policies on interest subsidies for personal consumption loans, extending the policy period to the end of 2026 and expanding the scope of support and subsidy areas, as well as raising the interest subsidy standards. Smooth policy handover and continuity will help enhance residents’ willingness to consume, and will also provide support for the growth of personal loans.

Since the beginning of the year, the fiscal authorities have already introduced a series of policies to boost domestic demand, including four policies supporting private investment and two policies supporting consumption.

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